franzferdinand

Geopolitics 62% +$847 $9,586 vol · 112 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	94¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	62¢	0¢	$-61	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$8	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	71¢	70¢	+$3	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	36¢	18¢	+$1	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	51¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	21¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45¢	69¢	+$174	win
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	50¢	62¢	+$39	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	78¢	81¢	+$9	win

Weather 50% +$68 $88 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	57¢	63¢	$-0	loss
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-2.5)	Miami Hurricanes	48¢	100¢	+$69	win

Economy 100% +$19 $312 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	87¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	95¢	100¢	+$8	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$7	win

Finance 100% +$10 $59 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Stripe IPO before 2027?	No	71¢	88¢	+$10	win

Elections 67% +$9 $542 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	81¢	83¢	+$1	win
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$-9	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	82¢	86¢	+$1	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	49¢	40¢	$-11	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	84¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	66¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win

Culture 80% $-23 $416 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	38¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will The Devil Is Busy win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-16	loss

Mentions 40% $-40 $198 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	No	89¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	77¢	0¢	$-28	loss

Tech 43% $-46 $299 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $210?	No	54¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $175?	No	29¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $570?	No	73¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 30 above $360?	No	61¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	95¢	97¢	$-1	loss

Esports 40% $-66 $349 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner	Top Esports	83¢	100¢	+$8	win
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner	Hanwha Life Esports	88¢	100¢	+$7	win
Valorant: Nuxeria Esport vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Regular Season	F9 EICAR	67¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	TYLOO	64¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	40¢	0¢	$-44	loss
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs	Tundra Esports	49¢	100¢	+$26	win
Counter-Strike: OG vs GRINGOS (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D	OG	80¢	50¢	$-8	loss
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs GRINGOS (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D	BC.Game Esports	65¢	50¢	$-5	loss
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Weibo Gaming	53¢	100¢	+$30	win

Politics 54% $-67 $2,667 vol · 41 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	94¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-4	loss
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	76¢	79¢	+$2	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	98¢	100¢	$-57	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	30¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-7	loss
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-12	loss

Sports 54% $-184 $3,053 vol · 68 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	96¢	98¢	+$0	win
Warriors vs. Clippers	Clippers	68¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies	Houston Astros	61¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox	Baltimore Orioles	55¢	100¢	+$17	win
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	78¢	0¢	$-79	loss
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies	Cavaliers	86¢	100¢	+$5	win
Lakers vs. Mavericks	Mavericks	80¢	100¢	+$42	win
Devils vs. Canadiens	Devils	89¢	100¢	+$12	win
Raptors vs. Celtics	Celtics	81¢	100¢	+$9	win
Grizzlies vs. Bucks	Bucks	85¢	100¢	+$7	win

Other 58% $-253 $8,168 vol · 147 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	69¢	70¢	$-2	loss
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	64¢	52¢	$-4	loss
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	78¢	70¢	$-10	loss
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$-6	loss
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	83¢	82¢	+$1	win
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	44¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$12	win
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	86¢	100¢	+$10	win
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$10	win
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	84¢	100¢	+$2	win

Crypto 54% $-696 $4,540 vol · 57 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	65¢	57¢	$-12	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?	100k	18¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	81¢	76¢	$-11	loss
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	47¢	70¢	+$14	win
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	89¢	98¢	+$5	win
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	65¢	62¢	$-3	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?	No	84¢	72¢	$-9	loss
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14?	No	79¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13?	No	69¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 13?	No	80¢	0¢	$-89	loss