Win rate
50.6%
667 W / 651 L
Total PnL
$35,443
realized $24,079 · unrealized $11,364
Portfolio
$11,364
volume $5,637,916
Predictions
2,242
25.0/day · avg $2,515
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 50% +$16,631
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 30¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 32¢ | 72¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 28¢ | $-182 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 22¢ | +$194 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | +$178 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | loss |
Tech 49% +$14,035
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | loss |
| Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Other 50% +$6,580
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | +$0 | win |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | 33¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | — |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Lighter Airdrop before January 1? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 51¢ | +$11 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Finance 67% +$417
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 15¢ | 5¢ | +$11 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 87¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 6¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-6 | loss |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$428 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 40¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | win |
Politics 55% +$371
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 62¢ | 61¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 34¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 5¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 83¢ | 76¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Trump deport 200-300k people? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump deport less than 200k people? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | Yes | 28¢ | 16¢ | +$23 | win |
Crypto 38% +$232
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 62¢ | 60¢ | +$9 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | Yes | 8¢ | 2¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
Mentions 90% $-76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
Sports 48% $-107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 57¢ | 53¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 62¢ | 55¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 20¢ | 4¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
Economy 43% $-126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 26¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | No | 79¢ | 70¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 43% $-478
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Kanye West release an album in 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 74¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
Elections 50% $-678
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 80¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 49¢ | 57¢ | +$17 | win |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$8 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 36¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 28¢ | +$16 | win |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-544 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 91¢ | +$437 | $135 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | +$85 | $176 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 52.0¢ | 9¢ | +$38 | $750 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $1,409 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 53.1¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $76 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,921 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026? | Yes | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $408 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 52.1¢ | 100¢ | $-39 | $289 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $491 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $-194 | $385 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | +$455 | $1,618 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 2¢ | +$59 | $197 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-302 | $297 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | $162 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $256 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $101 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $68 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $51 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $26 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | Yes | 45.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $202 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 63.3¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | $662 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 48.0¢ | 1¢ | $-10 | $432 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $205 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 1¢ | $-22 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $42 | 11/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $93 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $-287 | $395 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 18.5¢ | 100¢ | +$810 | $2,847 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 91¢ | +$338 | $53 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $109 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 49.9¢ | 9¢ | +$23 | $678 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $56 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $215 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $248 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $166 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $62 | 04/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 28.8¢ | 0¢ | $-163 | $176 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5,061 | $649 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1,984 | $487 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,327 | $2,315 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | +$958 | $1,127 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 100¢ | +$436 | $524 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | +$356 | $230 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$295 | $308 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | Yes | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | +$274 | $1,006 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | +$273 | $416 | 31/03/2026 |