polimoly

Politics 57% +$2,062 $12,129 vol · 85 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	27¢	22¢	$-0	loss
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	31¢	45¢	+$222	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$25	win
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?	Trump Announce Fed	92¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	89¢	93¢	$-4	loss
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	32¢	8¢	$-31	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	76¢	81¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$189	win
Will Leavitt say "President" 55+ times during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	47¢	36¢	$-13	loss

Geopolitics 48% +$1,432 $44,327 vol · 179 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	64¢	32¢	+$0	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	54¢	30¢	$-5	loss
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	26¢	21¢	$-12	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	61¢	100¢	$-13	loss
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	28¢	22¢	$-21	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	36¢	14¢	$-36	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	18¢	0¢	$-155	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$-2	loss

Sports 80% +$347 $1,440 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Josh Hokit	48¢	100¢	+$138	win
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Carlos Ulberg	51¢	100¢	+$96	win
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims)	Kevin Holland	57¢	100¢	+$54	win
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	Virna Jandiroba	54¢	100¢	+$54	win
Wizards vs. Grizzlies	Wizards	73¢	100¢	+$18	win
Wizards vs. Grizzlies	Grizzlies	65¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Mavericks vs. Jazz	Jazz	40¢	100¢	+$3	win
Cavaliers vs. Wizards	Wizards	30¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Bulls vs. Magic	Magic	92¢	100¢	+$51	win
Clippers vs. 76ers	76ers	95¢	100¢	+$8	win

Finance 100% +$72 $334 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$72	win

Mentions 67% +$34 $340 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?	No	24¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?	No	49¢	100¢	+$29	win

Tech 25% $-29 $420 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	72¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	61¢	100¢	$-16	loss
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?	No	0¢	0¢	$-20	loss

Elections 22% $-29 $3,923 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	54¢	42¢	$-6	loss
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	31¢	16¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	45¢	0¢	$-202	loss
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?	Yes	22¢	100¢	$-25	loss

Crypto 20% $-198 $241 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-103	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	25¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Hegseth say "CIA" during press conference?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	17¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28?	Yes	71¢	0¢	+$4	win

Culture 50% $-319 $391 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 93m and 101m?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-290	loss
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-33	loss

Other 39% $-1,293 $9,641 vol · 67 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$22	win
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	34¢	43¢	+$17	win
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	91¢	92¢	+$1	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	48¢	56¢	$-3	loss
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	86¢	72¢	$-11	loss
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$1	win
Tucker Carlson federally charged?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-15	loss
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	85¢	86¢	+$11	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	14¢	5¢	$-115	loss
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	13¢	6¢	+$142	win