Win rate
71.9%
182 W / 71 L
Total PnL
$5
realized $-1,028 · unrealized $1,033
Portfolio
$1,033
volume $63,649
Predictions
450
2.7/day · avg $141
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 73% +$344
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 48¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 79¢ | +$42 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$9 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | Up | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Down | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | Up | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 100% +$135
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Economy 83% +$133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 55% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 67¢ | +$18 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 18¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 30¢ | $-13 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 18¢ | 3¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 82% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 14¢ | 22¢ | +$71 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 53¢ | 62¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President by September 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 0% $-56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Esports 0% $-118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner | Hanwha Life Esports | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
Other 68% $-441
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 63¢ | 56¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 58¢ | 52¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 39¢ | 46¢ | +$5 | win |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 56¢ | 68¢ | +$5 | win |
| Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 75¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | Up | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $45 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Down | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $43 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Down | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $40 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | Up | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $35 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Down | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Down | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $25 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Up | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $235 | 05/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Down | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $40 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | Up | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $23 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET | Down | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $25 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Down | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $40 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | Up | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | Down | 82.7¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | Down | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 02/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | Down | 40.9¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 02/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | Up | 58.3¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $45 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | Up | 75.3¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $95 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | Up | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $95 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | Up | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $40 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | Up | 61.2¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $37 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Up | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $70 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Down | 64.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $36 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | Up | 76.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $35 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Up | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $55 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | Up | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $60 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | Down | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $110 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | Up | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $105 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | Down | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $43 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Down | 48.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $29 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | Up | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $30 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Down | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | Up | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Down | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $30 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Up | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $36 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Up | 91.8¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $122 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | Down | 51.4¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $59 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Down | 63.4¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | Up | 78.7¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | $86 | 25/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | Down | 57.4¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $92 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | Down | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $154 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | Down | 58.8¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $67 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET | Down | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $140 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET | Down | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $88 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Down | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $90 | 24/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET | Down | 53.9¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $38 | 24/02/2026 |