Win rate
69.4%
724 W / 319 L
Total PnL
$6,254
realized $-4,517 · unrealized $10,771
Portfolio
$10,771
volume $1,053,483
Predictions
3,424
34.5/day · avg $308
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 91% +$2,504
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? | No | 42¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference? | Yes | 63¢ | 63¢ | +$0 | — |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Lakers | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$1,064 | win |
| Pistons vs. Hornets | Pistons | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$1,224 | win |
| Will Melania say "Soccer" during statement on April 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the announcers say "Sequence" or "Combination" 3+ times during Strickland vs. Hernandez? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Olympics" or "Women's Sports" during the next press briefing? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Brian Armstrong say "Base Token" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 78% +$1,313
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 8¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 73¢ | 64¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 30¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 65+ times during the next White House press briefing? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 55+ times during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Leavitt say "Death to America" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 84% +$686
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 91¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$476 | win |
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Bitcoin ETF Flows on April 6? | Negative | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Midnight Hammer" 3+ times during press conference? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "F-35" or "F-22" or "F-15" during press conference? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 80% +$539
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 82¢ | $-226 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 83¢ | 52¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 6¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 22¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | loss |
Culture 69% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beyoncé be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Melania say "Movie" during statement on April 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
Geopolitics 75% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 55¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 34¢ | 18¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 55¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 59¢ | $-3 | loss |
Elections 40% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | Yes | 57¢ | 81¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | win |
| Will Trump say "Midterm" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 17¢ | 15¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 16¢ | 15¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 40¢ | 12¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 84¢ | 85¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 54¢ | 84¢ | $-13 | loss |
Economy 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Mentions 36% $-139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Esports 44% $-187
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Under | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Over | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Valorant: Team Secret vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha | Team Secret | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs STATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage | ex-RUBY | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage | R2 Esports Club | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | T1 | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) | Gen.G | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Tech 48% $-321
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? | No | 10¢ | 7¢ | $-5 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 3¢ | $-12 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Finance 68% $-522
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? | Up | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 36¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 11¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27? | Up | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19? | Up | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13? | Up | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13? | Down | 43¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Weather 34% $-758
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 18? | No | 20¢ | 20¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? | No | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? | Yes | 15¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | $37 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 42.2¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $51 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Common sense" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 26.0¢ | 30¢ | +$3 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 20.0¢ | 28¢ | +$1 | $20 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $118 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 86¢ | $-5 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $210 | 17/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? | Up | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $120 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? | No | 19.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $200 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $45 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | $54 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,243 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 28.7¢ | 24¢ | $-12 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 12¢ | $-3 | $26 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Assassin" or "Assassinate" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $166 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 35¢ | +$2 | $51 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 16.8¢ | 16¢ | $-2 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 67¢ | $-2 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 32¢ | $-18 | $51 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 70.0¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | $58 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "No No No" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 61.0¢ | 45¢ | $-11 | $43 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 68.0¢ | 54¢ | $-9 | $41 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Woke" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 34¢ | $-8 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 71.0¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Secret Service" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 73.0¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $262 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Air force" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $39 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $3,017 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $2,824 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $57 | 16/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $179 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $237 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $181 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Refund" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $33 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? | Yes | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $198 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,211 | 16/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Deficit" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $159 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Job" 12+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $189 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $41 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Waitress" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $27 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $474 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Job" 12+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $23 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 16? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $153 | 16/04/2026 |