mamai

Weather 73% +$554 $27,001 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?	No	48¢	74¢	+$117	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?	Yes	67¢	77¢	+$116	win
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-2,161	loss
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?	Yes	59¢	0¢	$-695	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$220	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$58	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$509	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$2,167	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	Yes	72¢	0¢	$-2,590	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$667	win

Politics 38% $-11 $1,979 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-140	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	42¢	24¢	$-10	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	57¢	42¢	$-17	loss
Will Trump say "Movie star" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	68¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	No	71¢	100¢	+$249	win
Will Miles Caton be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	87¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?	No	64¢	0¢	+$53	win

Finance 50% $-11 $969 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?	Down	78¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$69	win

Sports 0% $-200 $200 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	No	43¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-100	loss

Tech 20% $-2,312 $4,349 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	16¢	3¢	$-40	loss
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	52¢	0¢	$-207	loss
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$81	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$153	win
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?	Yes	78¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-924	loss
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?	Yes	90¢	0¢	$-707	loss
OpenAI browser by October 31?	No	53¢	0¢	$-301	loss

Mentions 60% $-2,528 $22,185 vol · 43 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	69¢	68¢	$-3	loss
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	No	77¢	87¢	+$167	win
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	No	64¢	0¢	$-121	loss
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-214	loss
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$282	win
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$99	win
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	49¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?	No	70¢	100¢	+$128	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$115	win

Geopolitics 66% $-2,996 $40,116 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	75¢	100¢	+$119	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	41¢	0¢	$-494	loss
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	61¢	0¢	$-185	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	79¢	90¢	+$66	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	2¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	58¢	8¢	$-34	loss
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	No	19¢	0¢	$-115	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	1¢	0¢	$-594	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	59¢	+$695	win
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	74¢	84¢	+$33	win

Crypto 51% $-3,297 $18,228 vol · 61 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$328	win
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	$-204	loss
ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	63¢	100¢	+$59	win
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	50¢	82¢	$-56	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	92¢	100¢	+$94	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	88¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-265	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 14?	No	48¢	0¢	$-433	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	83¢	100¢	+$20	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	77¢	0¢	$-140	loss

Other 49% $-4,911 $20,682 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	64¢	0¢	$-871	loss
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	81¢	39¢	+$278	win
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	9¢	0¢	$-490	loss
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	58¢	100¢	+$326	win
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	82¢	100¢	+$62	win
Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?	No	90¢	100¢	+$31	win
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	33¢	9¢	$-75	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	76¢	54¢	$-249	loss
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?	No	67¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?	No	77¢	100¢	+$58	win