Win rate
70.8%
46 W / 19 L
Total PnL
$2,092
realized $-6,171 · unrealized $8,262
Portfolio
$8,262
volume $56,894
Predictions
66
4.1/day · avg $862
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 65% +$1,624
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$79 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 96¢ | +$19 | win |
Politics 100% +$231
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 65¢ | 62¢ | +$8 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
Other 73% +$179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 36¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 66¢ | 76¢ | +$41 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29¢ | 52¢ | +$134 | win |
Elections 100% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Finance 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 25¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.6¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $1,757 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $696 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $1,240 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 50.9¢ | 91¢ | +$47 | $219 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $103 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $91 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 31.7¢ | 9¢ | $-43 | $75 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $2,121 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $101 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 50.3¢ | 91¢ | +$137 | $389 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 48.2¢ | 9¢ | $-73 | $152 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $49 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 94¢ | +$16 | $564 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 6¢ | $-25 | $49 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 84¢ | +$25 | $88 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 65.3¢ | 62¢ | +$8 | $47 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 23.6¢ | 16¢ | $-12 | $128 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 40¢ | +$260 | $737 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 75.4¢ | 93¢ | +$139 | $597 | 30/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 4¢ | $-26 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 78¢ | $-10 | $129 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$324 | $2,601 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 52¢ | +$134 | $197 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $558 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $1,117 | 30/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | No | 64.0¢ | 96¢ | +$19 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | $539 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $182 | 30/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $213 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $280 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $244 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 91¢ | $-0 | $146 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | $172 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 49.0¢ | 7¢ | $-17 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $284 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 59.8¢ | 95¢ | +$45 | $77 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.5¢ | 74¢ | +$271 | $595 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 76¢ | +$41 | $260 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 82¢ | +$17 | $60 | 31/05/2026 |
| Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $418 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/05/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | $75 | 30/06/2026 |