Win rate
93.0%
676 W / 51 L
Total PnL
$28,962
realized $18,697 · unrealized $10,266
Portfolio
$10,266
volume $2,727,764
Predictions
728
2.9/day · avg $3,747
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/11/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 92% +$20,072
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 2¢ | $-714 | loss |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Mother Mary" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Normal" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 72 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 76 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 93% +$4,695
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 98¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | No | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$189 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 40m? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 44m? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 91% +$2,180
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | win |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will DIY win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$727 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$807 | win |
| Indian Election: Modi reelected? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| El Salvador Presidential Election: Will Nayib Bukele win? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | win |
| Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Economy 100% +$2,138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$554 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | win |
Politics 100% +$1,055
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | win |
| [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Trump win North Carolina Republican Primary? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$443 | win |
| Will Biden drop out by Friday? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | win |
| Will Biden drop out by Friday? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries get the most votes in next vote for Speaker? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the first vote to oust McCarthy succeed? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
Sports 100% +$73
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $47–51M? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 100% +$36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will $ETH dip below $1000 by EOY? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 88% $-2,030
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military response against Iran in October? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Ukraine aid package in April? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Israel military action against Iran by Friday? | No | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-2,297 | loss |
| Will Hamas release more hostages by November 30? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by Nov 1? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza on Monday? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before 2023? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | $9,135 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $2,937 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $2,637 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $5,606 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,559 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $203 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $132 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $94 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $79 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 85.3¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $85 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $2,323 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 41m? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $5,079 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $3,860 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $2,965 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $465 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 72 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $356 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $2,335 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,593 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,146 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14m and $15m? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,776 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,576 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $799 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $962 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $426 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $190 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | $5,811 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $334 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 79 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | $2,143 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $910 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $7,720 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $4,411 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" be the highest grossing movie this weekend? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $6,499 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $1,813 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 42m? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $2,280 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $2,926 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $3,278 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $856 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" be the highest grossing movie this weekend? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,854 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $529 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,005 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $519 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $554 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,003 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 76 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $418 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $176 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 88 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $92 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $159 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | No | 98.3¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $338 | 30/03/2026 |