Win rate
54.4%
99 W / 83 L
Total PnL
$2,040
realized $6 · unrealized $2,034
Portfolio
$2,034
volume $422,509
Predictions
280
3.0/day · avg $1,509
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 52% +$1,605
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | loss |
| Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | win |
| Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-139 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Yes | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | loss |
Culture 50% +$1,251
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 129m and 143m? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Finance 75% +$299
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$318 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| $MSTR added to Nasdaq 100? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Crypto 67% +$231
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Gold | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
Geopolitics 72% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | win |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | No | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before August? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
Weather 73% +$89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18? | Yes | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18? | No | 58¢ | 53¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17? | Yes | 43¢ | 58¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 17? | Yes | 62¢ | 97¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17? | Yes | 68¢ | 98¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 13? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 12? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Sports 67% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 11¢ | 15¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 42% +$47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 48¢ | 40¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | loss |
| French election called by December 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-158 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-142 | loss |
| Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$310 | win |
Economy 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 61% $-286
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | loss |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-368 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by September 30? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| OpenAI browser by August 31? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
Other 41% $-1,466
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | Yes | 27¢ | 4¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 55¢ | +$264 | win |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $200k in 2025? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-345 | loss |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17? | Yes | 42.9¢ | 58¢ | +$10 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 17? | Yes | 61.5¢ | 97¢ | +$17 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17? | Yes | 67.8¢ | 98¢ | +$13 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16? | No | 63.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 13? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $24 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 12? | No | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $193 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | +$145 | $78 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $105 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $140 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 23.8¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $95 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $42 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | $142 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $181 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $83 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 21/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $116 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $312 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 68.6¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $137 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $200k in 2025? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-345 | $345 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,095 | $1,035 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | No | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$318 | $492 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | +$289 | $230 | 31/12/2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | $728 | 31/12/2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | +$88 | $112 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $283 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $327 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | $260 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $2,542 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $48 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $112 | 31/12/2025 |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $240 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? | Yes | 54.2¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $136 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $248 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $500 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $82 | 31/12/2025 |
| Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $310 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $162 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $126 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $49 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $186 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 50.8¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $28 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $294 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $216 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? | No | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $294 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $314 | 31/12/2025 |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | $-75 | $306 | 31/12/2025 |