Win rate
54.0%
47 W / 40 L
Total PnL
$-554
realized $-4,278 · unrealized $3,724
Portfolio
$3,724
volume $144,421
Predictions
100
3.3/day · avg $1,444
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 53% +$146
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 45¢ | 80¢ | +$13 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 32¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 4¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 46¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 85¢ | $-16 | loss |
Politics 43% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 86¢ | 76¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 94¢ | 57¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
Tech 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | 70¢ | 76¢ | +$12 | win |
Elections 50% $-93
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | Yes | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 98¢ | 14¢ | $-104 | loss |
Geopolitics 57% $-850
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 70¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 30¢ | $-77 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 18¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 22¢ | $-491 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | $-10 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 76¢ | +$7 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $240 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $819 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $1,314 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,604 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $293 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 59.5¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $1,739 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 88.7¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $2,116 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 56.7¢ | 10¢ | $-40 | $397 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 89.6¢ | 99¢ | +$303 | $2,778 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 99¢ | +$60 | $1,417 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $1,960 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 97¢ | +$7 | $302 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $499 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 14¢ | $-104 | $983 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $444 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 46.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $46 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 25.1¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $126 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 80.2¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $2,588 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $234 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $443 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $96 | 01/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $1,972 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 56.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $148 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | +$101 | $700 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,000 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $185 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 82.4¢ | 92¢ | $-251 | $536 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 56¢ | $-14 | $935 | 22/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 65¢ | $-0 | $681 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 56¢ | +$8 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 84.0¢ | 10¢ | $-74 | $84 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 66.7¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $333 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $297 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $460 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $59 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | $180 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97.0¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $4,807 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 97.6¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | $1,074 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? | No | 35.9¢ | 66¢ | +$7 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $85 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $167 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $392 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $255 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 4¢ | $-1 | $172 | 30/04/2026 |