Win rate
41.3%
465 W / 661 L
Total PnL
$29,085
realized $12,093 · unrealized $16,992
Portfolio
$16,992
volume $4,318,880
Predictions
1,274
10.6/day · avg $3,390
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 41% +$19,061
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$503 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$232 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 30¢ | +$0 | — |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 33¢ | 9¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Other 46% +$6,391
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | win |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 42¢ | 78¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | No | 22¢ | 36¢ | +$-0 | — |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 22¢ | $-20 | loss |
Mentions 26% +$4,470
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-640 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-710 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-189 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-477 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-308 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
Politics 52% +$2,333
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$23 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 58¢ | 36¢ | $-28 | loss |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 26¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-622 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein? | Yes | 65¢ | 8¢ | +$9 | win |
Economy 29% +$1,755
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? | No | 22¢ | 88¢ | +$1,913 | win |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 91¢ | $-11 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-139 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
Finance 38% +$432
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? | Down | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Up | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$604 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? | Down | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? | Up | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| S&P 500 all time high by December 31? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Sports 33% +$197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Celtics | 8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,590 | win |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$372 | win |
| Nets vs. Kings | Nets | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-728 | loss |
| Trail Blazers vs. 76ers | 76ers | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-356 | loss |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$247 | win |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Patriots | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Seahawks | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | Patriots | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | loss |
Weather 40% +$89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 65¢ | 78¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11? | Yes | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
Elections 48% $-189
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 37¢ | 19¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$38 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Culture 20% $-1,098
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-137 | loss |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-919 | loss |
| Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Tech 19% $-1,249
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | Yes | 88¢ | 30¢ | $-218 | loss |
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | loss |
| Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-541 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Crypto 44% $-1,361
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Up | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | Down | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | Down | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | Up | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Up | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | Up | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | Up | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$587 | $5,655 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 100¢ | +$864 | $1,444 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $2,647 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $295 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$52 | $333 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 26.3¢ | 14¢ | $-4 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | $159 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.5¢ | 86¢ | $-410 | $4,594 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | $753 | 14/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Celtics | 8.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,590 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 76.9¢ | 99¢ | +$610 | $3,309 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 63.5¢ | 0¢ | +$372 | $1,293 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 1¢ | $-117 | $550 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,170 | $6,300 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$678 | $2,036 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | +$448 | $292 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 65.3¢ | 0¢ | $-420 | $600 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,320 | $24,631 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $331 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 28.9¢ | 14¢ | $-804 | $2,806 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,293 | $1,960 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$527 | $1,400 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$617 | $813 | 05/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $45 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $220 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Yes | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $110 | 01/04/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8,523 | $7,725 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 32.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,105 | $2,783 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,087 | $4,633 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? | No | 54.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,084 | $1,601 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$915 | $342 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 19.1¢ | 100¢ | +$911 | $693 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 70.4¢ | 100¢ | +$853 | $3,062 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 38.1¢ | 100¢ | +$699 | $652 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$613 | $1,211 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$533 | $2,858 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$384 | $1,430 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$371 | $2,754 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? | No | 33.1¢ | 100¢ | +$354 | $927 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 59.5¢ | 100¢ | +$311 | $536 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | No | 61.4¢ | 0¢ | +$305 | $908 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | No | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | +$243 | $113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$234 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$199 | $1,107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 16.7¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | $599 | 31/03/2026 |