Win rate
48.6%
17 W / 18 L
Total PnL
$-360
realized $-1,534 · unrealized $1,173
Portfolio
$1,173
volume $70,346
Predictions
55
7.4/day · avg $1,279
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 55¢ | 32¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 42¢ | 68¢ | $-2 | loss |
Elections 67% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 54¢ | 55¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 42¢ | 43¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 80¢ | 82¢ | $-9 | loss |
Finance 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | — |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 37¢ | 34¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 67% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 17¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 0% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 28¢ | 22¢ | $-13 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 39% $-139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 55¢ | 56¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | — |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 44¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 24¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 | Under | 68¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,123 | 16/04/2026 |
| RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 | Under | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $489 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $510 | 16/04/2026 |
| Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5) | SC Freiburg | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $720 | 16/04/2026 |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $530 | 16/04/2026 |
| Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $478 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $88 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $790 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $630 | 15/04/2026 |
| FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score | No | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $270 | 15/04/2026 |
| Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 | Over | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-740 | $740 | 15/04/2026 |
| FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 | Under | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $370 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 99¢ | +$24 | $1,365 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 87.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $140 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 11.0¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | $207 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,228 | $200 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | $207 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | $167 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? | Yes | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | $208 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? | No | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | +$2 | $54 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 81.0¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | $162 | 22/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 54.7¢ | 32¢ | +$6 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 68¢ | $-2 | $84 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 38.0¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | $108 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 60¢ | +$0 | $118 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 60.0¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | $120 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | $403 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 4.0¢ | 4¢ | +$1 | $82 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 17.8¢ | 18¢ | +$15 | $255 | 21/06/2026 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 57.3¢ | 57¢ | +$2 | $223 | 21/06/2026 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 61.0¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | $54 | 21/06/2026 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 42.2¢ | 43¢ | $-4 | $179 | 21/06/2026 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 80.0¢ | 82¢ | $-9 | $679 | 21/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | $432 | 30/06/2026 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 37.0¢ | 34¢ | $-1 | $38 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | $152 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 59.0¢ | 60¢ | +$1 | $118 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | $76 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 44¢ | +$0 | $35 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 55¢ | +$0 | $108 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 54.0¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | $108 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | 70.9¢ | 70¢ | $-6 | $1,245 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 22¢ | $-13 | $56 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 17¢ | $-4 | $38 | 31/12/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 55.0¢ | 56¢ | +$2 | $230 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 16.5¢ | 20¢ | +$2 | $61 | 31/12/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83.3¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | $1,098 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68.0¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | $131 | 31/12/2026 |