anciano

Esports 67% +$994 $7,934 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend	Anyones Legend	40¢	100¢	+$383	win
Will DRX or T1 win the 2022 League of Legends World Championship?	DRX	12¢	100¢	+$4,607	win
Will DRX or T1 win the 2022 League of Legends World Championship?	T1	41¢	0¢	$-3,996	loss

Weather 40% +$17 $4,081 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 142.5	Over	45¢	100¢	+$555	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils	St. Johns Red Storm	27¢	0¢	+$47	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5	Under	51¢	0¢	$-14	loss
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils	Duke Blue Devils	72¢	100¢	$-45	loss
Will there be a named tropical system (storm, hurricane) Alex that forms by May 31, 2022?	No	99¢	100¢	$-527	loss

Finance 64% $-74 $7,534 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	74¢	88¢	$-319	loss
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	18¢	12¢	+$368	win
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 26?	Down	48¢	0¢	+$13	win
Will Shutterstock (SSTK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	38¢	100¢	+$44	win
Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will PayPal Holdings (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	No	21¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings?	No	34¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Mentions 20% $-586 $3,791 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in the Epstein survivors' list?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday?	No	99¢	100¢	$-495	loss
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday?	No	100¢	100¢	$-26	loss
Will @kanyewest tweet again before November?	No	81¢	100¢	$-27	loss
Will @kanyewest tweet again by July 1, 2022?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Tech 48% $-829 $27,827 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	31¢	0¢	+$82	win
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	66¢	100¢	$-50	loss
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-82	loss
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-475	loss
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-38	loss
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?	No	32¢	0¢	$-90	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-208	loss
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$7	win

Economy 46% $-1,174 $121,634 vol · 61 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	90¢	92¢	$-234	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	7¢	8¢	+$217	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	5¢	1¢	$-18	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-958	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	93¢	100¢	$-867	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-841	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	96¢	100¢	$-3,044	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	No	94¢	100¢	$-505	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-347	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-306	loss

Crypto 55% $-1,502 $31,376 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?	No	93¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by October 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 31?	Down	44¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	46¢	100¢	+$6	win
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	47¢	0¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?	No	79¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will Solana reach $230 in November?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will $ETH hit $1,000 or $2,000 first?	$1,000	100¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will $ETH hit $1,000 or $2,000 first?$	$2,000	96¢	100¢	+$8	win

Elections 49% $-3,664 $2,134,775 vol · 662 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	52¢	62¢	+$1	win
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52¢	60¢	+$25	win
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	97¢	96¢	$-1,640	loss
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$31	win
America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	11¢	16¢	+$335	win
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	10¢	16¢	+$1,073	win
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	35¢	34¢	+$22	win
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	46¢	46¢	$-45	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	45¢	46¢	$-189	loss

Politics 53% $-7,511 $1,268,835 vol · 812 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$198	win
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	3¢	+$16	win
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	78¢	78¢	$-1,381	loss
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	91¢	94¢	$-2,031	loss
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	90¢	91¢	$-8	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10¢	10¢	+$266	win
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	41¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	68¢	69¢	$-0	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	59¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	44¢	84¢	$-2	loss

Sports 57% $-9,990 $556,237 vol · 864 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	5¢	4¢	+$0	—
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	94¢	94¢	$-516	loss
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	9¢	+$0	win
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	89¢	+$3	win
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will the New York Rangers win the Eastern Conference?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	93¢	98¢	$-20	loss
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	77¢	96¢	$-52	loss

Geopolitics 46% $-13,503 $462,266 vol · 307 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	73¢	82¢	+$7	win
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$-64	loss
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$121	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	65¢	70¢	$-43	loss
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	61¢	85¢	$-44	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	82¢	91¢	$-97	loss
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?	No	94¢	100¢	$-107	loss
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	80¢	84¢	$-353	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	9¢	9¢	+$176	win
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	24¢	16¢	+$311	win

Other 51% $-17,046 $760,814 vol · 695 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	92¢	97¢	$-30	loss
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	2¢	1¢	+$290	win
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	19¢	16¢	+$1,007	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	17¢	22¢	+$206	win
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	53¢	48¢	+$166	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	58¢	44¢	+$12	win
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	14¢	7¢	$-17	loss
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	41¢	56¢	$-71	loss
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	72¢	70¢	$-999	loss