Faston

Geopolitics 56% +$1,084 $12,433 vol · 133 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	22¢	14¢	+$6	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	56¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	72¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	42¢	100¢	+$50	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	51¢	0¢	+$3	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	21¢	0¢	$-156	loss
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	80¢	72¢	$-34	loss
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$50	win

Other 52% +$1,079 $6,916 vol · 74 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?	Yes	89¢	73¢	+$1	win
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?	No	50¢	12¢	$-21	loss
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	23¢	28¢	+$11	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	66¢	80¢	+$14	win
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?	No	86¢	100¢	+$23	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	27¢	48¢	$-16	loss
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	21¢	7¢	$-30	loss
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$-2	loss
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	82¢	56¢	+$6	win
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-11	loss

Finance 100% +$6 $176 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	88¢	56¢	+$6	win

Crypto 50% $-7 $173 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition	No	24¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	74¢	100¢	+$11	win

Elections 0% $-27 $227 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance say "Election" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán?	No	64¢	0¢	$-27	loss

Culture 78% $-46 $364 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	59¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?	No	49¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?	No	17¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Oscars Bingo	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-103	loss
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 76 and 79 million views on week 1?	Yes	33¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get 35 million or more views on day 1?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$6	win

Esports 0% $-55 $74 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	HANJIN BRION	10¢	0¢	$-29	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	G2 Esports	29¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Politics 53% $-207 $8,314 vol · 96 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	80¢	79¢	+$22	win
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	90¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	72¢	78¢	$-41	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	45¢	24¢	$-19	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	No	18¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	29¢	40¢	+$11	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026?	Yes	52¢	59¢	+$7	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	52¢	50¢	$-2	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	20¢	40¢	$-14	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	Yes	33¢	6¢	+$6	win

Tech 46% $-433 $934 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	68¢	84¢	+$23	win
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-75	loss
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	49¢	0¢	$-232	loss
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 26?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	No	53¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	No	10¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?	No	8¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?	No	19¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Mentions 62% $-1,040 $41,499 vol · 121 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?	No	50¢	100¢	+$149	win
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	24¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	Yes	15¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?	Yes	60¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$-53	loss
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	No	49¢	100¢	$-49	loss
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-33	loss
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$15	win