Win rate
81.0%
311 W / 73 L
Total PnL
$-1,840
realized $-39,426 · unrealized $37,586
Portfolio
$37,586
volume $3,712,801
Predictions
386
9.1/day · avg $9,619
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 83% +$2,981
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | loss |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$204 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$1,299 | win |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$5 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$35 | win |
Economy 100% +$1,430
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$107 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$215 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$229 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 5.0%? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$370 | win |
Politics 89% +$270
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Finance 100% +$186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)? | No | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$108 | win |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Tech 74% +$141
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | loss |
| Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Elections 50% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Other 82% $-554
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-543 | loss |
| Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| P2P FDV above $80M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Block Street FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Yellow FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 79% $-6,076
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 80¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Nansen launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 82¢ | +$18 | win |
| USD0 depeg by December 31? | No | 88¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | win |
| ETHGAS FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | 76¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Exponent launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $895 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 83.4¢ | 90¢ | +$124 | $1,250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $945 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 99¢ | +$33 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | $4,730 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $16,017 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $17,023 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $1,697 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $60 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $7,502 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $188 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $30 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $3,127 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,492 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $20 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $995 | 01/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $186 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $995 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Infinex launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $121 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $10 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $417 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $498 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $497 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $285 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $97 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $623 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $195 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$671 | $127,148 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$650 | $6,615 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $39,916 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $959 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $3,412 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $7,231 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $3,228 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $494 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,926 | 31/03/2026 |
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $239 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 69¢ | $-38 | $323 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 55¢ | $-288 | $787 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89.8¢ | 16¢ | $-362 | $982 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 0¢ | $-493 | $902 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 0¢ | $-663 | $718 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $191 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-83 | $182 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-82 | $182 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $189 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$229 | $31,478 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $854 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $497 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $498 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $597 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $15,439 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $3,424 | 01/03/2026 |