Relaccsed

Geopolitics 63% +$6,807 $172,702 vol · 292 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	98¢	100¢	+$18	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$170	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	12¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	92¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	50¢	24¢	+$1	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	45¢	76¢	$-4	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	41¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	$-13	loss

Politics 64% +$4,033 $38,239 vol · 135 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Yes	32¢	18¢	$-7	loss
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-14	loss
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	85¢	84¢	$-105	loss
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	7¢	16¢	+$140	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$403	win
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	No	31¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	5¢	20¢	+$1,009	win
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?	Yes	37¢	22¢	$-51	loss

Elections 57% +$946 $8,428 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	96¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	52¢	39¢	$-278	loss
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	40¢	47¢	+$19	win
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	98¢	98¢	+$0	win
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	No	99¢	98¢	$-0	loss
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-143	loss
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?	No	42¢	0¢	$-222	loss
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	93¢	96¢	+$42	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	43¢	21¢	$-42	loss

Economy 100% +$28 $280 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?	No	68¢	86¢	+$28	win
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	50¢	56¢	+$0	—
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	50¢	44¢	+$0	—
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Esports 71% +$27 $539 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ludwig & MoistCr1TiKaL win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament?	No	80¢	100¢	+$40	win
Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	NRG	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	Heroic	50¢	50¢	+$1	win
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	69¢	100¢	+$19	win
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3)	TheMongolz	23¢	0¢	$-23	loss

Weather 67% +$13 $515 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	47¢	64¢	+$38	win
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	90¢	90¢	+$0	—
Flood mindshare all time high by March 31?	No	93¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -13°C on February 7?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on January 2?	No	50¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on January 2?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Mentions 67% $-14 $274 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-31	loss
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$3	win

Other 67% $-50 $46,918 vol · 220 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	77¢	100¢	+$46	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	65¢	100¢	+$4	win
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?	No	75¢	100¢	+$179	win
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	30¢	0¢	$-189	loss
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	42¢	0¢	$-84	loss
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$1	win
Over $18M committed to the Space public sale?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$7	win
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$92	win

Tech 71% $-119 $4,097 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	5¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
ChatGPT Outage by April 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-72	loss
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	55¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	66¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?	No	82¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	68¢	0¢	+$0	win

Culture 50% $-289 $1,058 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	No	73¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	Yes	80¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 79 and 82 million views on week 1?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-46	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will any game win 3 awards at the Steam Awards?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will any game win 3 awards at the Steam Awards?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?	No	50¢	100¢	+$84	win
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	Yes	49¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	No	36¢	0¢	$-138	loss

Finance 33% $-387 $1,005 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	52¢	5¢	$-131	loss
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	No	59¢	0¢	$-82	loss
Will Coca-Cola say "Bacardi" during earnings call?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-149	loss
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-30	loss

Sports 41% $-441 $3,459 vol · 44 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jirí Procházka	51¢	0¢	$-152	loss
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)	Bruno Silva	40¢	0¢	$-34	loss
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims)	Bolaji Oki	31¢	0¢	$-37	loss
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims)	Brad Tavares	52¢	0¢	$-50	loss
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Charles Oliveira	37¢	100¢	+$183	win
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	66¢	0¢	$-2	loss
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)	Strickland	32¢	100¢	+$106	win
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	35¢	0¢	$-4	loss

Crypto 83% $-454 $1,525 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin -10% daily candle change in 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	74¢	78¢	+$7	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	94¢	98¢	+$3	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	15¢	100¢	+$15	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-462	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	No	81¢	100¢	+$3	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	50¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	50¢	100¢	+$1	win