Win rate
48.0%
1618 W / 1753 L
Total PnL
$-34,215
realized $-200,492 · unrealized $166,277
Portfolio
$166,277
volume $9,168,654
Predictions
3,728
103.3/day · avg $2,459
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/06/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Finance 54% +$2,745
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in December? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 72¢ | +$20 | win |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 88¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in December? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-55 | loss |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $33,000 on the final trading day of December 2026? | No | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$8 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 13¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-89 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Weather 67% +$508
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | win |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | Missouri Tigers | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$1,463 | win |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | Miami Hurricanes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-956 | loss |
Esports 30% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs | SportsBetExpert | 31¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs | LAG Gaming | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: K27 vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs | K27 | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Counter-Strike: K27 vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs | Inner Circle Esports | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | FaZe | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$244 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | Aurora Gaming | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will NRG win Masters Santiago 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
Tech 48% $-195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 26¢ | +$24 | win |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$271 | win |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | No | 33¢ | 70¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 78¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$5 | win |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 78¢ | $-173 | loss |
Economy 47% $-221
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-418 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-644 | loss |
| Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | No | 68¢ | 59¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 7¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$77 | win |
Crypto 49% $-804
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 60¢ | $-334 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 32¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 70¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 20¢ | 25¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 60¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 21¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 28¢ | $-50 | loss |
Culture 47% $-3,049
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new song in 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 72¢ | +$169 | win |
| Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | No | 70¢ | 68¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Will Cameron Boozer win the 2025-2026 Naismith Men's College Player of the Year Award? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Owen Cooper win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Politics 52% $-3,278
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 72¢ | 79¢ | $-214 | loss |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-384 | loss |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 6¢ | +$9 | win |
| Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 28¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 17¢ | +$53 | win |
| Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 86¢ | +$24 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
Elections 53% $-4,277
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-274 | loss |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 12¢ | 22¢ | +$240 | win |
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 59¢ | 58¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? | Yes | 86¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat? | Yes | 71¢ | 74¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat? | No | 79¢ | 84¢ | $-20 | loss |
Geopolitics 53% $-6,168
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 43¢ | 24¢ | $-274 | loss |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 24¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$833 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 73¢ | 76¢ | +$241 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 14¢ | +$231 | win |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 22¢ | +$127 | win |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-6,256 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 73¢ | 88¢ | $-169 | loss |
Other 45% $-9,363
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cleveland Browns win the 2026 AFC North? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Guy Young appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? | No | 90¢ | 86¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 30¢ | +$323 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 36¢ | $-194 | loss |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 62¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-1,153 | loss |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.? | No | 83¢ | 89¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 44¢ | +$215 | win |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | No | 26¢ | 16¢ | +$168 | win |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | No | 28¢ | 1¢ | +$132 | win |
Sports 46% $-40,026
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-217 | loss |
| Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | $-125 | loss |
| Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 34¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 36¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 92¢ | $-66 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | Hornets | 48.0¢ | 48¢ | +$15 | $1,440 | 17/04/2026 |
| Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 217.5 | Over | 51.0¢ | 52¢ | +$5 | $504 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$63 | $101 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $181 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 20.8¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | $41 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | $57 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $575 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $277 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 63.6¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $268 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 21.4¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $72 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $36 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $247 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $118 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $28 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $160 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $41 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $54 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $360 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $41 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $27 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Rangers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $88 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $599 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $48 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $33 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $81 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New Jersey Devils make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $42 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $172 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 79.6¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $120 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | $-42 | $318 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-64 | $322 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | $-73 | $288 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-73 | $446 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Trail Blazers | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,200 | $800 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 87.5¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | $350 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | +$23,413 | $1,923 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | +$21,612 | $3,284 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18,507 | $3,772 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$12,000 | $199 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11,860 | $89,303 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11,106 | $1,152 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$9,344 | $175 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7,682 | $272 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$7,650 | $241 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$6,532 | $189 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$5,640 | $151 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5,378 | $181 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5,203 | $208 | 13/04/2026 |