Win rate
87.2%
34 W / 5 L
Total PnL
$968
realized $-4,203 · unrealized $5,171
Portfolio
$5,171
volume $36,513
Predictions
39
1.4/day · avg $936
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 100% +$718
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$15 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$32 | win |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 63¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 96¢ | +$78 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 69¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$202 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 86% +$175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$19 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 75¢ | 80¢ | +$18 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
Elections 80% +$97
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 42¢ | 40¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 15¢ | 36¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Crypto 100% +$52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 64¢ | +$35 | win |
Other 62% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 53¢ | 36¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 81¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 78¢ | +$103 | win |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 23¢ | 4¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 71¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 81¢ | 70¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Recent Trades (40)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $163 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $198 | 12/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $258 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $450 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 75.0¢ | 80¢ | +$18 | $300 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | $219 | 22/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 81.2¢ | 70¢ | $-71 | $970 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 56.0¢ | 56¢ | +$1 | $168 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 75.0¢ | 99¢ | +$202 | $1,162 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 36.5¢ | 69¢ | +$102 | $201 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $202 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 99¢ | +$28 | $625 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 80.0¢ | 94¢ | +$21 | $480 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 71.0¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | $284 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94.0¢ | 97¢ | +$19 | $573 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 36.0¢ | 40¢ | +$19 | $198 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 80.0¢ | 96¢ | +$78 | $400 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 4¢ | $-40 | $50 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 63.0¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | $126 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 15.0¢ | 36¢ | +$52 | $149 | 30/09/2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38.4¢ | 40¢ | +$3 | $59 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 40¢ | $-3 | $55 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 16¢ | +$5 | $101 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84.0¢ | 81¢ | $-15 | $504 | 31/12/2026 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 86¢ | +$32 | $400 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | No | 60.5¢ | 78¢ | +$103 | $357 | 31/12/2026 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 92¢ | +$29 | $281 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87.5¢ | 91¢ | +$15 | $525 | 31/12/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 53.0¢ | 36¢ | +$4 | $113 | 31/12/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | $76 | 31/12/2026 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85.0¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | $510 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 76.7¢ | 79¢ | +$17 | $575 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 64¢ | +$35 | $350 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 3¢ | +$24 | $50 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4.1¢ | 7¢ | +$53 | $82 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 4¢ | $-2 | $70 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 4¢ | +$5 | $50 | 07/11/2028 |