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0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802
0xa3af760e15e6b6bd3c43d8cf2ae6952f0a9bb7a6 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
74.7%
236 W / 80 L
Total PnL
$-232
realized $-9,550 · unrealized $9,317
Portfolio
$9,317
volume $204,456
Predictions
640
16.3/day · avg $319
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 81% +$492
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 71¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Yes | 61¢ | 31¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$4 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
Politics 67% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 27¢ | 27¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 78¢ | 79¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 21¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 86% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 26¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 100% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 84% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 28? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 69% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | Chris Padilla | 54¢ | 50¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Mavericks vs. Suns | Suns | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Pistons | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bucks vs. Rockets | Rockets | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Parivision qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | Pistons | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 50% $-46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 43¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93¢ | 74¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 56% $-52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Geopolitics 79% $-178
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 84¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 81¢ | +$31 | win |
Esports 17% $-508
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner | Gen.G | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A | BNK FEARX | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | NRG | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 35.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $55 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $427 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $222 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82.8¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | $157 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 90¢ | +$11 | $52 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $127 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | Chris Padilla | 54.3¢ | 50¢ | $-12 | $153 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $180 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $59 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 82.0¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $88 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 46.4¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $47 | 11/04/2026 |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | AFC Bournemouth | 73.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $37 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $226 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $89 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $105 | 10/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Suns | Suns | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $54 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $59 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,006 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 97.4¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | $284 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 53.7¢ | 90¢ | +$40 | $71 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 96.3¢ | 10¢ | $-61 | $118 | 07/04/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Bilibili Gaming | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $60 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? | No | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $175 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $46 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $82 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 63.3¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $85 | 03/04/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Pistons | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $67 | 02/04/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Rockets | Rockets | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $93 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $38 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $56 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $66 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $33 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $3,921 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $5,063 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $650 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $163 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $478 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $881 | 31/03/2026 |