Win rate
72.7%
101 W / 38 L
Total PnL
$-516
realized $-1,195 · unrealized $679
Portfolio
$679
volume $68,838
Predictions
1,083
9.1/day · avg $64
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 82% +$178
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 49¢ | 46¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 43¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 92¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 76% +$164
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 61¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 81¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 88% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 7? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 7? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Crypto 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 33% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 96¢ | 75¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 42¢ | 15¢ | $-22 | loss |
Esports 0% $-119
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | Top Esports | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Sports 0% $-122
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | Hornets | 50¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Other 62% $-151
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 53¢ | 34¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 78¢ | 96¢ | +$7 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 44¢ | 66¢ | +$28 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Dplus KIA | 49¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Madrid: George Loffhagen vs Zsombor Piros | George Loffhagen | 49¢ | 50¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) | Manchester United FC | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Dplus KIA | 48.8¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $134 | 17/04/2026 |
| Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | Hornets | 50.0¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | $60 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $60 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $60 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $169 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 60.3¢ | 93¢ | +$5 | $156 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.9¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 45.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $129 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $42 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $227 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $20 | 14/04/2026 |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | Top Esports | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Madrid: George Loffhagen vs Zsombor Piros | George Loffhagen | 49.0¢ | 50¢ | +$2 | $77 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) | Manchester United FC | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $147 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 27.0¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 61.8¢ | 84¢ | +$20 | $67 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | Oh My God | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 41.6¢ | 15¢ | $-22 | $87 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $54 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $47 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $37 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 8? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $57 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $48 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 92¢ | +$25 | $185 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $168 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 7? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $75 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 7? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $43 | 07/04/2026 |