Win rate
88.6%
1252 W / 161 L
Total PnL
$15,031
realized $13,112 · unrealized $1,919
Portfolio
$1,919
volume $1,448,077
Predictions
1,623
9.7/day · avg $892
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 97% +$14,363
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 12? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 11? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 11? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 11? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 8? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 81% +$6,003
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 48¢ | 1¢ | $-326 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 80¢ | 76¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Assassin" or "Assassinate" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Women's sports" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Air force" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Culture 97% +$4,792
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast say "Movie" or "Film" during his next video? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Will Stephen Graham win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Owen Cooper win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$393 | win |
| Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Other 73% +$765
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 73¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will MrBeast say "Ronaldo" during his next video? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Viktor" or "Orbán" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-141 | loss |
| Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Tech 70% +$694
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$475 | win |
| Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will "BIRDS - Turnstile" win Best Metal Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Baier interview on Thursday? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Brian Armstrong say AI/Artificial Intelligence times during his X space? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$249 | win |
Esports 50% +$469
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) | TheMongolz | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) | G2 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Valorant: T1 vs SLT - Map 2 Winner | SLT | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | win |
| Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner | Fnatic | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Valorant: T1 vs SLT - Map 2 Winner | T1 | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner | Gen.G Esports | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner | Astralis | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$149 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) | Liquid | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) | TYLOO | 43¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner | NIP | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
Crypto 79% +$338
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$231 | win |
| Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET | Down | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7PM ET | Up | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8PM ET | Up | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2PM ET | Down | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Seth Rogen win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Wisconsin on Thursday? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg - The Studio win Best Director for a Comedy Series at the 78th DGA Awards? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Emergence - Sleep Token" win Best Metal Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will the next Pope after Francis be from the Philippines? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 100% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
Elections 78% $-179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 70¢ | 99¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 22¢ | 2¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Election" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the next White House Press Briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the next White House Press Briefing? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-309 | loss |
| Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
Sports 75% $-1,875
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "F1" win Best Editing at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will New England beat Seattle in Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will New England beat Seattle in Super Bowl LX? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Steve Milton - 2025 Masters Tournament - Augusta National Golf Club win Best Director for Sports at the 78th DGA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Adin Ross unbanned from Twitch in 2025? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? | Yes | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-1,409 | loss |
Geopolitics 66% $-12,257
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-284 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 76¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-1,059 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$686 | win |
| Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Israel" during press conference? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-230 | loss |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Israel" during press conference? | Yes | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-392 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 76¢ | $-39 | $794 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 91.0¢ | 90¢ | $-3 | $546 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Woke" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 64.6¢ | 78¢ | +$40 | $204 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 69.3¢ | 74¢ | +$9 | $130 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Medal of Freedom" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 37.0¢ | 64¢ | +$24 | $34 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Assassin" or "Assassinate" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 63.6¢ | 66¢ | +$1 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | $5,225 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $692 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $529 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $401 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $540 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $416 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $91 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Deficit" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $45 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Air force" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 78.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $43 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Great Big Beautiful Bill" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $373 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Refund" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $240 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $230 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Trump Account" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $127 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Women's sports" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $47 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $364 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 12? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $411 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 70.3¢ | 99¢ | +$34 | $82 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 2¢ | $-20 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 11? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $920 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 11? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $287 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 11? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $215 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next video? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $162 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $2,248 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Movie" or "Film" during his next video? | No | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $92 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Ronaldo" during his next video? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-124 | $124 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,980 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 9? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $128 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $92 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "EU" or "European Union" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $333 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Oil" 2+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $736 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $2,970 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Nuclear" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,970 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $1,464 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Slovakia" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $308 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $814 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 8? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $990 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or higher on April 8? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $990 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $256 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Rigged" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $274 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 8? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $479 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Viktor" or "Orbán" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $114 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Election" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $217 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán? | No | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Nuclear" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 08/04/2026 |