ballzi.

Weather 37% +$5,033 $63,573 vol · 174 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?	Yes	16¢	10¢	$-158	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-1,901	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-604	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-746	loss
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on January 18?	No	70¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-1,647	loss
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?	No	88¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-123	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?	No	85¢	100¢	+$57	win

Elections 39% +$91 $19,932 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	52¢	64¢	+$16	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	60¢	40¢	$-5	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	21¢	24¢	$-15	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	36¢	14¢	+$180	win
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	50¢	98¢	+$88	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$63	win
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	35¢	99¢	+$49	win
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	33¢	93¢	+$781	win
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	25¢	1¢	$-29	loss

Mentions 40% +$73 $1,729 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?	No	69¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-37	loss

Economy 40% +$53 $432 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	97¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Culture 30% +$30 $3,182 vol · 43 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	14¢	100¢	+$172	win
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	88¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	28¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-31	loss

Finance 50% $-1 $50 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	80¢	28¢	$-2	loss
Will Broadcom beat Q2 earnings forecast ($1.57 EPS)?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$2	win

Tech 70% $-12 $2,207 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	62¢	0¢	$-65	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Yes	42¢	0¢	+$58	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	37¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	67¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?	No	30¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-67	loss
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?	Yes	32¢	0¢	+$10	win

Esports 25% $-256 $785 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Dark Passage vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season	BoostGate Esports	66¢	100¢	+$101	win
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #1 Playoffs	Procyon Gaming	28¢	0¢	$-56	loss
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #1 Playoffs	Vexa	21¢	0¢	$-42	loss
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Solary	8¢	100¢	+$137	win
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	3DMAX	75¢	100¢	+$15	win
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2	Top Esports	17¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Bebop (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage	Bebop	19¢	0¢	$-34	loss
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Misa Esports	62¢	0¢	$-124	loss
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner	HEROIC Academy	16¢	0¢	$-30	loss
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2	Weibo Gaming	14¢	0¢	$-40	loss

Sports 45% $-420 $2,058 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	18¢	30¢	+$54	win
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	Yes	34¢	0¢	+$13	win
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Phillies vs. Giants	Giants	60¢	100¢	+$27	win
Lakers vs. Spurs	Lakers	70¢	100¢	+$17	win
Thunder vs. Jazz	Jazz	55¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Guardians vs. Astros	Astros	65¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Heat vs. Warriors	Heat	60¢	100¢	+$27	win
Blue Jays vs. White Sox	Blue Jays	65¢	100¢	+$22	win

Politics 44% $-516 $7,735 vol · 77 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	78¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	26¢	99¢	$-11	loss
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	No	80¢	100¢	+$150	win
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	69¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-20	loss

Geopolitics 35% $-856 $12,817 vol · 117 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	29¢	100¢	$-11	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	55¢	70¢	+$2	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	36¢	0¢	$-75	loss
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	36¢	0¢	$-44	loss
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	65¢	30¢	$-51	loss
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	56¢	39¢	$-12	loss
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	72¢	41¢	$-22	loss
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$121	win

Crypto 39% $-1,129 $8,551 vol · 149 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	13¢	2¢	$-12	loss
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 7PM ET	Down	30¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	78¢	100¢	+$22	win
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	No	85¢	100¢	+$0	win
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-54	loss
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?	No	40¢	0¢	$-60	loss
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	No	17¢	79¢	+$0	—

Other 41% $-1,332 $45,501 vol · 258 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	62¢	100¢	+$10	win
Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?	No	84¢	100¢	+$19	win
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	18¢	5¢	+$23	win
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	51¢	64¢	+$22	win
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	43¢	100¢	+$13	win
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	63¢	100¢	+$3	win
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	72¢	90¢	+$2	win
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	53¢	100¢	$-15	loss