woodenrobot

Crypto 81% +$490 $6,581 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	77¢	90¢	+$138	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	No	79¢	100¢	+$119	win
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?	No	85¢	100¢	+$83	win
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$75	win
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?	No	85¢	100¢	+$60	win
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$4	win
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-306	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$200	win
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$180	win
No Ethereum all time high in 2024?	No	8¢	0¢	+$82	win

Tech 100% +$126 $560 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$98	win
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$28	win

Sports 33% $-520 $1,275 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-500	loss

Politics 60% $-748 $3,735 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	68¢	86¢	$-91	loss
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?	No	55¢	100¢	+$329	win
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$27	win
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?	No	75¢	0¢	$-533	loss
Will Biden finish his term?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$3	win
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-423	loss
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?	No	72¢	100¢	+$69	win
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points?	No	87¢	0¢	$-166	loss
Will Trump say "Border" 30 or more times during Georgia rally on October 28?	No	83¢	100¢	+$10	win

Elections 43% $-1,118 $4,284 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	27¢	28¢	$-56	loss
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$249	win
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	77¢	100¢	+$148	win
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?	No	33¢	0¢	$-95	loss
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	69¢	100¢	+$60	win
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-397	loss
Bitcoin all time high day after election?	No	84¢	0¢	$-300	loss
Trump wins a solid blue state?	No	86¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?	No	8¢	0¢	$-6	loss

Geopolitics 72% $-1,274 $22,410 vol · 50 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	46¢	0¢	$-309	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	82¢	97¢	+$236	win
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-200	loss
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?	No	77¢	0¢	$-497	loss
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	70¢	100¢	+$204	win
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$202	win
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?	No	61¢	0¢	$-603	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	83¢	100¢	+$89	win
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?	No	75¢	0¢	$-495	loss
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	No	73¢	100¢	+$48	win

Other 69% $-5,893 $73,448 vol · 151 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	67¢	52¢	$-82	loss
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-567	loss
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	74¢	98¢	+$101	win
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$-85	loss
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-360	loss
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	79¢	94¢	+$202	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	76¢	54¢	$-296	loss
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17?	No	87¢	86¢	$-3	loss
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	No	70¢	100¢	+$225	win
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$79	win