Win rate
71.8%
1392 W / 547 L
Total PnL
$84,627
realized $42,237 · unrealized $42,390
Portfolio
$42,390
volume $5,625,979
Predictions
1,869
20.3/day · avg $3,010
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 72% +$58,782
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 52¢ | +$72 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 42¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 76¢ | +$872 | win |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$383 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 30¢ | +$342 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 62¢ | 86¢ | +$142 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$140 | win |
Other 71% +$13,203
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$40 | win |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 99¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 7¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$8 | win |
Politics 71% +$10,355
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 46¢ | 61¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$4 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | +$236 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | +$159 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 28¢ | +$12 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026? | No | 63¢ | 88¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$64 | win |
Crypto 67% +$1,139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$17 | win |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | 90k | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 28¢ | 44¢ | +$330 | win |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | No | 47¢ | 62¢ | +$26 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 61¢ | 62¢ | +$2 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$41 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$24 | win |
Economy 71% +$582
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping by August 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-214 | loss |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$722 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
Sports 83% +$482
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
Culture 100% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
Esports 67% $-70
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | FaZe | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) | FaZe | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | Natus Vincere | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | Spirit | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | Natus Vincere | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming | Top Esports | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| League of Legends: Gen.G vs. Hanwha Life Esports | Gen.G | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Tech 77% $-85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 38¢ | +$11 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Finance 60% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? | Down | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? | Up | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 41¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 78% $-1,158
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 26¢ | 19¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 53¢ | 60¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 41¢ | 43¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$12 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 72¢ | 88¢ | +$28 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 33¢ | 52¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 88¢ | 95¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 4¢ | 5¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 66¢ | +$25 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$313 | $966 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$156 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $4,014 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $1,175 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $120 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $42 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | $441 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | +$1,109 | $548 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 92¢ | +$3,235 | $7,731 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,029 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $1,154 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $155 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $296 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $271 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | +$4,100 | $2,346 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $797 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $376 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $496 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 27.2¢ | 92¢ | +$1,925 | $5,264 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 58.9¢ | 100¢ | +$591 | $3,132 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | +$221 | $491 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 35.0¢ | 7¢ | +$20 | $310 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-192 | $6,861 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $-460 | $770 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $52 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $178 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $89 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $78 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | No | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $45 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$912 | $1,689 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 100¢ | +$650 | $162 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$642 | $369 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 11.6¢ | 0¢ | +$523 | $4,148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 35.7¢ | 100¢ | +$414 | $472 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$379 | $2,535 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$359 | $5,988 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | +$345 | $415 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | +$296 | $326 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 26.2¢ | 50¢ | +$280 | $567 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$276 | $2,204 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 28.5¢ | 100¢ | +$268 | $585 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | $276 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | +$234 | $236 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 62.9¢ | 50¢ | +$228 | $1,464 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | $957 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 23.4¢ | 0¢ | +$214 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $238 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 23.2¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | $582 | 31/03/2026 |