Win rate
59.6%
53 W / 36 L
Total PnL
$-2,739
realized $-387,117 · unrealized $384,378
Portfolio
$384,378
volume $6,126,267
Predictions
62
2.8/day · avg $98,811
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 73% +$124,514
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 41¢ | 71¢ | +$3,441 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-44,049 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 22¢ | +$7,726 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 78¢ | +$22,941 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 69¢ | +$8,323 | win |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$74 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 29¢ | +$779 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 26¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 81¢ | +$159 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$27 | win |
Elections 100% +$1,399
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1,399 | win |
Economy 50% +$946
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | $-8,225 | loss |
Politics 31% $-7,365
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 80¢ | 88¢ | $-2,061 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 53¢ | 40¢ | $-782 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-3,892 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-936 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$986 | win |
Other 64% $-17,854
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 20¢ | $-7,980 | loss |
| Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 80¢ | $-16,630 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 28¢ | 38¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$132 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 11¢ | 12¢ | +$31 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 16¢ | 18¢ | +$343 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 36¢ | 50¢ | +$1,095 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 50¢ | 50¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | No | 83¢ | 89¢ | +$1,431 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 8¢ | $-65 | loss |
Culture 0% $-95,699
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-20,910 | loss |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-24,480 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 31.0¢ | 10¢ | +$3,389 | $8,566 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,667 | $88,945 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3,892 | $30,312 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6,368 | $40,807 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13,649 | $82,947 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 61.8¢ | 90¢ | +$24,607 | $82,748 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2,888 | $13,301 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $117 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 38.4¢ | 10¢ | +$12,083 | $33,849 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4,052 | $233,952 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 43.9¢ | 90¢ | +$301 | $41,094 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | $2,335 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-936 | $1,976 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 67.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2,793 | $14,615 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,800 | $1,856 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$986 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$48,057 | $4,894 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7,874 | $118,439 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | +$4,612 | $1,140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,841 | $74,167 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,651 | $41,798 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,195 | $6,638 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$388 | $19,029 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3,645 | $9,524 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | $-3,675 | $9,716 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | $-23,792 | $219,675 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,815 | $9,236 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-756 | $755 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | $136 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,399 | $7,796 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5,510 | $15,010 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k? | No | 98.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9,120 | $18,620 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 0¢ | $-16,761 | $35,756 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-18,918 | $37,918 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20,910 | $46,410 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-24,480 | $49,980 | 06/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | +$14,425 | $13,830 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$875 | $15,026 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $240 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,473 | $8,194 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | $-8,829 | $24,410 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 3.9¢ | 1¢ | +$9,312 | $4,328 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29,464 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-141 | $29,688 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29,394 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 99¢ | $-8,225 | $17,378 | 29/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 96.8¢ | 97¢ | +$7,622 | $177,166 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 48.9¢ | 94¢ | +$17,607 | $22,325 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 89¢ | +$1,431 | $19,802 | 30/04/2026 |