Win rate
52.2%
12 W / 11 L
Total PnL
$-38
realized $-783 · unrealized $745
Portfolio
$745
volume $166,074
Predictions
43
1.5/day · avg $3,862
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 50% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-6 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 87¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 60% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 50% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Economy 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% $-22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 68¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 60% $-41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 42¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78¢ | 77¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (47)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,616 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $832 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,617 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $836 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | $69 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 96.8¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | $791 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $838 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $823 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 87.3¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $3,617 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,617 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 96.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $3,616 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88.5¢ | 88¢ | $-6 | $1,789 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | No | 95.9¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | $838 | 03/06/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 1¢ | +$20 | $36 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $902 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 77.6¢ | 77¢ | $-50 | $1,431 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,617 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $114 | 16/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 96.7¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $823 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 97.2¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | $821 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,616 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $839 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 83.8¢ | 84¢ | +$8 | $792 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | $314 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87.0¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $838 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | $63 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $130 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | $26 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 87.4¢ | 42¢ | +$8 | $831 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | No | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $1,564 | 30/11/2026 |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $823 | 30/11/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | 85.5¢ | 68¢ | $-23 | $703 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.4¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $1,658 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97.3¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | $4,126 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16.2¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | $343 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $154 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $824 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.3¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $824 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91.2¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $823 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $43 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $823 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $897 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 94.5¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | $818 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 95.8¢ | 96¢ | +$-0 | $2,552 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83.4¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | $905 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | $824 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.0¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | $819 | 07/11/2028 |