Win rate
53.2%
143 W / 126 L
Total PnL
$-976
realized $-1,587 · unrealized $611
Portfolio
$611
volume $151,247
Predictions
464
6.2/day · avg $326
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 52% +$534
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perle Labs FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | No | 71¢ | 43¢ | $-10 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 79¢ | 76¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 10¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 12¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 58% +$276
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Crypto 100% +$53
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
Esports 50% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner | Team Yandex | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner | Heroic | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Culture 64% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 40% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 68¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 55¢ | 57¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 22¢ | 25¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
Finance 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 69¢ | +$5 | win |
Mentions 0% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
Sports 56% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers vs. Golden Knights | Oilers | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Devils vs. Predators | Devils | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Blackhawks vs. Flyers | Flyers | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens | Blue Jackets | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Rangers vs. Maple Leafs | Maple Leafs | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 33% $-112
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 7+ times during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 42% $-206
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 13? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 11? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-145 | loss |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
Geopolitics 52% $-1,329
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 78¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 73¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 62¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $132 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 90.3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? | Yes | 76.3¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $33 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $183 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $955 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 91¢ | +$12 | $50 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 81.3¢ | 9¢ | $-6 | $21 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 24.3¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $37 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $44 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 43.6¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $89 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 69.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $28 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 27.1¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $133 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $151 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $22 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $20 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 29/03/2026 |