Win rate
55.6%
15 W / 12 L
Total PnL
$-182
realized $-822 · unrealized $640
Portfolio
$640
volume $32,108
Predictions
41
1.1/day · avg $783
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 50% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 81¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 0% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Other 50% $-64
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 80¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 78¢ | 50¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | $-7 | loss |
Elections 33% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
Geopolitics 75% $-148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 78¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 22¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 28¢ | $-82 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | loss |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | No | 65¢ | 39¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (29)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 67.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 71.0¢ | 84¢ | $-7 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Popular win 36-39 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? | Yes | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $55 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 24¢ | $-5 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 64.0¢ | 97¢ | +$87 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | No | 64.7¢ | 39¢ | +$7 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 78.5¢ | 50¢ | $-14 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | $226 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 07/05/2026 |
| Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | No | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $50 | 07/05/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 2¢ | +$8 | $61 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $25 | 30/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 29.6¢ | 20¢ | $-171 | $500 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 40.8¢ | 28¢ | $-82 | $250 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | $50 | 27/06/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 85.4¢ | 90¢ | +$55 | $1,117 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 74.2¢ | 94¢ | +$21 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91.0¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | $418 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 5¢ | $-3 | $100 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 17¢ | +$1 | $150 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 57.7¢ | 78¢ | +$64 | $300 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 22¢ | +$45 | $628 | 31/12/2026 |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 69.8¢ | 78¢ | +$11 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 82.0¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | $808 | 31/12/2026 |