alvaro25011

Economy 50% +$32 $154 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$60	win

Geopolitics 57% +$4 $1,338 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	86¢	100¢	+$1	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	35¢	0¢	+$30	win
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	No	64¢	0¢	$-0	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-29	loss
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	50¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$9	win
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score	Yes	63¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$13	win
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5	Over	83¢	100¢	+$14	win

Culture 100% +$3 $121 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	89¢	32¢	+$3	win

Crypto 89% $-101 $15,825 vol · 111 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	73¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of April 13 2026?	No	92¢	99¢	$-5	loss
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $118 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	52¢	1¢	$-17	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 27?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 26?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 24?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	—

Weather 58% $-162 $1,479 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 16?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?	No	74¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 8?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-117	loss
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 5?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 5?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 3?	No	87¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3?	No	60¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 2?	No	77¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 2?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$14	win

Elections 21% $-245 $1,036 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	64¢	53¢	+$2	win
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	44¢	47¢	$-9	loss
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?	No	73¢	62¢	$-6	loss
Will GERB-SDS win 70 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	74¢	96¢	$-31	loss
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	89¢	97¢	$-44	loss
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	58¢	91¢	$-103	loss
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	No	75¢	98¢	$-6	loss
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	83¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	67¢	1¢	$-11	loss

Tech 40% $-328 $1,232 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	37¢	38¢	$-7	loss
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	51¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	56¢	37¢	$-28	loss
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 Week of April 13 2026?	No	95¢	99¢	+$2	win
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of April 13 2026?	No	92¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	48¢	15¢	$-26	loss
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 Week of April 13 2026?	No	92¢	98¢	+$3	win
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	50¢	78¢	$-29	loss
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of April 13 2026?	No	87¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of April 13 2026?	No	87¢	0¢	$-35	loss

Sports 56% $-386 $2,051 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $97.50 Week of April 13 2026?	No	88¢	0¢	$-117	loss
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of April 13 2026?	No	83¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 13?	Down	76¢	0¢	$-169	loss
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 8?	Up	85¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5	Under	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)	Mavericks	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5	Under	78¢	100¢	$-27	loss
Pelicans vs. Lakers	Lakers	76¢	100¢	+$9	win
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets	Hornets	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	72¢	100¢	+$3	win

Politics 23% $-541 $2,176 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Donald Trump announce Mike Lee as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan out as President of the United Arab Emirates by June 30, 2026?	No	90¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	41¢	1¢	$-20	loss
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	80¢	39¢	+$70	win
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	84¢	46¢	$-22	loss
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	41¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will White House post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-66	loss

Finance 46% $-776 $8,834 vol · 98 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	47¢	28¢	+$2	win
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	48¢	72¢	+$1	win
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	60¢	58¢	$-8	loss
Discord IPO before 2027?	No	31¢	42¢	$-8	loss
Will Honeywell International (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	78¢	89¢	+$10	win
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	67¢	29¢	$-23	loss
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	50¢	30¢	$-31	loss
Will Moody's (MCO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	50¢	86¢	+$18	win
Will Moody's (MCO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	50¢	14¢	$-18	loss
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	50¢	70¢	+$21	win

Other 63% $-1,361 $22,616 vol · 310 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	42¢	28¢	+$3	win
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	51¢	72¢	+$4	win
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	30¢	44¢	$-7	loss
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	8¢	0¢	+$17	win
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	36¢	38¢	+$12	win
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	87¢	100¢	+$11	win
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	50¢	0¢	+$10	win
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	61¢	62¢	+$3	win
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	38¢	34¢	$-3	loss
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?	Yes	76¢	20¢	$-6	loss

Mentions 51% $-1,744 $6,472 vol · 62 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	95¢	99¢	$-16	loss
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	95¢	96¢	+$1	win
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	95¢	75¢	$-20	loss
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	52¢	53¢	+$1	win
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	31¢	18¢	$-13	loss
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	70¢	69¢	$-1	loss
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	95¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	71¢	95¢	+$18	win
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	81¢	93¢	+$3	win