Win rate
85.3%
1134 W / 196 L
Total PnL
$67,796
realized $22,478 · unrealized $45,317
Portfolio
$45,317
volume $829,273
Predictions
1,772
20.6/day · avg $468
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 86% +$44,690
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 75¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 38¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 72¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 58¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" in April? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? | No | 77¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 83% +$8,916
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$18 | win |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | win |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? | No | 54¢ | 80¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Tucker Carlson federally charged? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 4¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 91% +$3,930
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$108 | win |
| U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Border" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Ally" or "Allied" or "Alliance" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | No | 10¢ | 100¢ | +$2,274 | win |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Sports 82% +$3,899
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 35¢ | 47¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 56¢ | 56¢ | +$2 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) | Thiago Moises | 45¢ | 42¢ | $-10 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Kyler Phillips | 42¢ | 46¢ | +$7 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Gilbert Burns | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$2 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) | Jai Herbert | 38¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Inflation" 3+ times during Michigan visit? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Vance say "Inflation" 3+ times during his Rocky Mount visit? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
Tech 65% +$2,236
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 27? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-430 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? | No | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$214 | win |
| Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$143 | win |
| Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | loss |
Culture 83% +$1,662
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Britney Spears perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Shakira perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival? | Yes | 78¢ | 98¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k? | Yes | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 160k and 180k? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | win |
Mentions 100% +$276
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$223 | win |
Elections 89% +$229
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$13,180 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 17¢ | $-13,180 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Election" during events with Japanese PM? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during the Black History Month reception? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election" this week? (February 15) | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 1) | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | win |
| Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Finance 56% $-98
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | No | 53¢ | 48¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Netflix say "Live" or "Event" during earnings call? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-374 | loss |
| Will Bank of America say "CashPro" during earnings call? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$281 | win |
Crypto 92% $-251
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 25? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the rally on Saturday? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Michigan visit? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Wisconsin on Thursday? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the fundraiser? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-379 | loss |
| Will Megadeth by Megadeth be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of February 14? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 91.0¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | $182 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Lunatic" or "Lunacy" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 68.6¢ | 79¢ | +$17 | $115 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $150 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 92.3¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | $414 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Woke" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 57.0¢ | 58¢ | +$2 | $74 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17? | Yes | 67.4¢ | 74¢ | +$8 | $72 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kamala" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 46¢ | +$4 | $42 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Assassin" or "Assassinate" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 59.0¢ | 67¢ | +$8 | $59 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Christian" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 30.0¢ | 33¢ | +$3 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 160k and 180k? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $45 | 17/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | No | 80.9¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $83 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Women's sports" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $383 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $549 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $317 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Farmer" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $583 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "International Law" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $699 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $326 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $194 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Waitress" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $173 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Ally" or "Allied" or "Alliance" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $206 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Too late" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $33 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Made in America" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $64 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Putin" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Energy" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Mercenary" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Border" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Refund" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $44 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Air force" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 43.7¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $148 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $354 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Leo" or "Pope" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $800 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "China" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $555 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Amsterdam" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $239 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Ordinary - Alex Warren" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 18? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $257 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Stateside - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 18? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $257 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 18? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $257 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Golden - HUNTR/X" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 18? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $257 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 18? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $257 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $57 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Friend" or "Ally" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 48.4¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $102 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $736 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Stone Age" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $71 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $568 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "South Korea" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $225 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 55.7¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video? | Yes | 56.9¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $60 | 10/04/2026 |