AlAhmeda

Crypto 78% +$1,800 $100,529 vol · 239 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2025?	No	67¢	100¢	+$165	win
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	31¢	74¢	+$86	win
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	80k	83¢	100¢	+$57	win
Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	No	89¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	76¢	92¢	$-19	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	59¢	62¢	$-29	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	65¢	26¢	$-30	loss
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	24¢	16¢	$-78	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	150k	58¢	0¢	$-106	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-260	loss

Elections 77% +$844 $24,622 vol · 63 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	19¢	17¢	$-61	loss
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	52¢	58¢	$-13	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	78¢	84¢	+$50	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	82¢	65¢	$-8	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?	No	96¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	No	93¢	6¢	$-43	loss
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?	No	18¢	0¢	+$-0	—
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win

Sports 75% +$446 $3,588 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 in April?	Yes	85¢	16¢	$-70	loss
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	Gaethje	32¢	100¢	+$81	win
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)	Silva	66¢	100¢	+$17	win
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	72¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$57	win
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $60?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Hawks vs. Suns	Hawks	97¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$85	win
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30?	No	95¢	100¢	+$10	win
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?	No	86¢	100¢	+$42	win

Esports 80% +$14 $336 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Team Spirit win The International 2025 Tournament?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC	PARIVISION	83¢	100¢	+$17	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs. Yakult Brothers	Tundra Esports	84¢	100¢	+$16	win
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Nemesis	Team Falcons	91¢	100¢	+$9	win
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs. BOOM Esports	Team Liquid	90¢	100¢	+$5	win

Weather 100% +$2 $224 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on December 4?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 18?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 58% $-47 $5,534 vol · 43 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$235	win
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$92	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$68	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	77¢	0¢	$-77	loss
Will Generate Biomedicines not IPO before April 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Bill Clinton say "Pam" or "Bondi" during his Epstein testimony?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23?	Down	96¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be below 700 million?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3	win

Culture 50% $-72 $259 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)	Yes	32¢	100¢	+$59	win
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	No	12¢	0¢	$-72	loss

Mentions 64% $-582 $4,483 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-61	loss
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?	No	74¢	0¢	$-148	loss
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-96	loss
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	No	81¢	0¢	$-244	loss
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?	No	92¢	0¢	$-92	loss

Economy 74% $-1,165 $8,356 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	63¢	8¢	$-1,123	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	50¢	4¢	$-91	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	95¢	99¢	+$76	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	97¢	100¢	+$4	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-63	loss
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2025 meeting?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-42	loss

Politics 74% $-3,063 $115,320 vol · 204 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	35¢	27¢	$-101	loss
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	59¢	61¢	+$10	win
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	34¢	22¢	$-13	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	+$145	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	71¢	100¢	+$145	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	65¢	100¢	+$87	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	Yes	90¢	92¢	+$35	win
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	No	66¢	76¢	+$5	win
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	+$0	—

Tech 60% $-3,198 $17,895 vol · 54 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	30¢	17¢	$-13	loss
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	92¢	100¢	+$5	win
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-106	loss
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	69¢	78¢	+$3	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	97¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	No	6¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO?	No	54¢	100¢	+$230	win
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?	No	97¢	0¢	$-1,169	loss

Other 74% $-20,338 $541,438 vol · 580 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	51¢	0¢	$-109	loss
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	No	68¢	72¢	+$8	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	85¢	66¢	$-27	loss
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	No	92¢	88¢	$-2	loss
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	49¢	12¢	$-38	loss
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	73¢	100¢	+$58	win
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$112	win
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	No	72¢	90¢	+$3	win
DoubleZero FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	52¢	95¢	$-1	loss

Geopolitics 74% $-21,439 $1,412,797 vol · 616 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	47¢	46¢	$-1	loss
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	20¢	16¢	$-18	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	88¢	91¢	$-600	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	65¢	80¢	+$4,992	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$156	win
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	84¢	100¢	+$585	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	39¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	66¢	100¢	+$330	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	30¢	34¢	+$152	win