Win rate
60.4%
84 W / 55 L
Total PnL
$1,361
realized $-196 · unrealized $1,557
Portfolio
$1,557
volume $82,013
Predictions
168
2.1/day · avg $488
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 74% +$1,060
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 36¢ | 99¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 72¢ | +$59 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 22¢ | 40¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Other 57% +$223
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 53¢ | 21¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$297 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 57¢ | 47¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Geopolitics 60% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 63¢ | 22¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 55¢ | 95¢ | +$60 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 3¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 94¢ | +$86 | win |
Finance 0% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 49.9¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | $299 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 68.7¢ | 12¢ | $-18 | $550 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 29.2¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 50.5¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $257 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 39.5¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 63.8¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 48.8¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 49.5¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | No | 55.2¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $273 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $207 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | No | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 34.6¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 48.2¢ | 100¢ | $-281 | $469 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 60.5¢ | 84¢ | +$150 | $396 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23? | No | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $90 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $191 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $30 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $164 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $71 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $30 | 04/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | No | 60.4¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $106 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026? | No | 52.7¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $53 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026? | No | 48.8¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $43 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $111 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? | No | 42.2¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $113 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $26 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $140 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? | Yes | 79.6¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | $159 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? | No | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $80 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Nicki Minaj attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $40 | 24/02/2026 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? | Yes | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | $191 | 14/02/2026 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? | No | 57.5¢ | 0¢ | $-186 | $186 | 14/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | No | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$80 | $40 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $201 | 13/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $631 | 13/02/2026 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $40 | 07/02/2026 |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | No | 61.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $61 | 01/02/2026 |