Win rate
44.9%
88 W / 108 L
Total PnL
$-655
realized $-3,823 · unrealized $3,167
Portfolio
$3,167
volume $164,500
Predictions
261
6.8/day · avg $630
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Tech 100% +$56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
Geopolitics 44% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 86¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 79¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 50% $-52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 16¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | win |
| Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan out as President of the United Arab Emirates by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 37% $-65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 72¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 87¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 57¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 43¢ | 40¢ | $-4 | loss |
Esports 0% $-100
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) | MOUZ | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Other 50% $-175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 80¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
Crypto 64% $-234
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 88¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 83¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 86¢ | $-167 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $179 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $340 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $133 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $57 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $240 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $190 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $214 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $131 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | $468 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Romuald Wadagni be the next President of Benin? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $259 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $55 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 22.1¢ | 1¢ | $-18 | $288 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $2,478 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $3,955 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $1,465 | 31/03/2026 |
| Venezuela coup attempt by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Oman strike Iran by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $142 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $163 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 82.5¢ | 0¢ | $-326 | $658 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Green Left win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $41 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $216 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $304 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $253 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Rastriya Prajatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $41 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Nepali Communist Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $21 | 05/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 89.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $117 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 95.6¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $137 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $72 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 6% or more? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $336 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,302 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 40 and 69 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 80% and 85%? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $54 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will National Citizen Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $99 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Parliamentary election? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be 90% or higher? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $61 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 85% and 90%? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the National Citizen Party finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $37 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $39 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $38 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 75% and 80%? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $55 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $372 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 9% or more? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $43 | 12/02/2026 |