Win rate
73.4%
1414 W / 512 L
Total PnL
$50,209
realized $-2,578 · unrealized $52,787
Portfolio
$52,787
volume $2,016,587
Predictions
2,349
27.9/day · avg $858
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/02/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 77% +$23,238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$1,113 | win |
| Will Robert De Zerbi be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$1,003 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 2¢ | $-433 | loss |
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | No | 60¢ | 46¢ | $-442 | loss |
| Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$223 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will Igor Tudor be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Geopolitics 70% +$18,253
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 80¢ | +$20 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$435 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 28¢ | +$2 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 77% +$10,396
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shavkat Rakhmonov be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 6¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will AJ Brown be traded? | No | 58¢ | 38¢ | $-19 | loss |
| NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | win |
| Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? | Yes | 54¢ | 4¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? | No | 74¢ | 98¢ | $-18 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$390
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Kenneth Walker III play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis be decided any other way? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | win |
| Bethesda Lion Angels vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers | Utah Tech Trailblazers | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Esports 67% +$248
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xqc & PlaqueBoyMax Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) | FaZe | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner | FaZe | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) | Vitality | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | Natus Vincere | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Spirit | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
Culture 83% +$123
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West release an album in 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Jeremiyah Love win the 2025–2026 Doak Walker Award? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Fernando Mendoza win the 2025–2026 Davey O'Brien Award? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2025–2026 Biletnikoff Award? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-132 | loss |
| Will Cameron Boozer win the 2025-2026 Naismith Men's College Player of the Year Award? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Bennett Stirtz win the 2025-2026 Naismith Men's College Player of the Year Award? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Weather 100% +$83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
Economy 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 60% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 61¢ | 99¢ | $-18 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
Elections 39% $-1,472
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$824 | win |
| Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | No | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | Yes | 83¢ | 40¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 7¢ | $-385 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 4¢ | $-275 | loss |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
Politics 66% $-1,855
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-270 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Maria Corina Machado in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Georgia in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | Trump Announce Fed | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $101 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $180 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $81 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $155 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $838 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $174 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $750 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $313 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $178 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 16.2¢ | 100¢ | +$959 | $211 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | $508 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $538 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $63 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $163 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Greatest Military" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 52.3¢ | 100¢ | $-168 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 63.5¢ | 100¢ | $-186 | $362 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 55.2¢ | 100¢ | $-194 | $437 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Inflation" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 70.9¢ | 100¢ | $-263 | $411 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Stupid" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | $-281 | $636 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | $-317 | $903 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | $-373 | $648 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1,346 | $2,804 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 27.6¢ | 0¢ | $-507 | $2,073 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$425 | $2,507 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 13, 2026? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $161 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will there be 2+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $211 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $61 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $120 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Dustin Johnson be the best overall player from LIV in the 2026 Masters main tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $115 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fred Hoiberg win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? | Yes | 68.4¢ | 0¢ | $-600 | $607 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $430 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $376 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $68 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | $815 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $126 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Toumani Camara lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $171 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $208 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $91 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Chris Paul not sign with or be traded to a new team? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $73 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Celtics make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $233 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Washington Wizards make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $41 | 12/04/2026 |