Win rate
78.5%
551 W / 151 L
Total PnL
$23,962
realized $7,051 · unrealized $16,911
Portfolio
$16,911
volume $1,942,303
Predictions
764
6.5/day · avg $2,542
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 70% +$8,718
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 84¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 44¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 54¢ | 57¢ | +$9 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 36¢ | 34¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 80¢ | 59¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40¢ | 41¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 70¢ | 66¢ | $-11 | loss |
Other 82% +$8,549
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 30¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 34¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | $-58 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 68¢ | 58¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 8¢ | $-284 | loss |
| Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027? | Yes | 65¢ | 68¢ | $-3 | loss |
Geopolitics 78% +$4,108
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 76¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 91¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 56¢ | 24¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 30¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$100 | win |
Politics 83% +$2,599
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$558 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 71¢ | 88¢ | +$74 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-223 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$85 | win |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$67 | win |
Economy 83% +$541
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Crypto 85% +$135
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 44¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? | No | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 27¢ | 100¢ | $-109 | loss |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-134 | loss |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$63 | win |
Tech 83% +$117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | No | 10¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| GPT ads by December 31? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 36¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 62¢ | 64¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 80% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 83¢ | 97¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Sweden record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 80% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | +$31 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 100% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Weather 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $1,118 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 28.6¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | $1,576 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 85¢ | +$62 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $709 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $262 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | +$253 | $3,138 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $3,687 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 89.8¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $338 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,507 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,199 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 30.3¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $45 | 01/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | +$329 | $1,794 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$308 | $1,369 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$295 | $972 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$212 | $658 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $2,264 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $4,755 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $660 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition | Yes | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $430 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $1,268 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 68.5¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $289 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $733 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,547 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $718 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $137 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 57.5¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $604 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | $-58 | $568 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-181 | $4,075 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 2¢ | +$9 | $43 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$644 | $1,331 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 57.9¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $548 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 41.7¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $62 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $1,876 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | Yes | 14.5¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $164 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $1,434 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $317 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $46 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $26 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 54.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $141 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Martine Vassal win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $140 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $124 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $200 | 22/03/2026 |