Win rate
60.0%
472 W / 315 L
Total PnL
$122,367
realized $25,101 · unrealized $97,265
Portfolio
$97,265
volume $6,046,067
Predictions
699
6.9/day · avg $8,650
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 65% +$88,364
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 84¢ | +$1,389 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 76¢ | +$547 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-1,085 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 72¢ | +$319 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | +$306 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 69¢ | +$300 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 39¢ | 82¢ | +$250 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | win |
Other 64% +$14,377
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 73¢ | 84¢ | +$139 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 62¢ | 59¢ | $-365 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 34¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$252 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$2,521 | win |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 93¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 31¢ | 63¢ | +$1,452 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$961 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | win |
Politics 73% +$10,247
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 35¢ | 27¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 13¢ | 21¢ | +$946 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 60¢ | 84¢ | +$931 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$855 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 16¢ | +$98 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-852 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 86¢ | 40¢ | $-3,383 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$88 | win |
Elections 61% +$7,215
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 7¢ | 10¢ | +$538 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-319 | loss |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 75¢ | $-1,183 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 43¢ | 94¢ | +$1,481 | win |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 96¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
Sports 33% +$616
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-646 | loss |
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Oilers vs. Panthers | Panthers | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-199 | loss |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Pacers | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$402 | win |
| Sky vs Liberty | Sky | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
Economy 80% +$447
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-196 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
Finance 0% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
Crypto 40% $-65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$84 | win |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 2¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-736 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$2,647 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-452 | loss |
| Will Solana dip to $120 before 2026? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$373 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $120 in November? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$1,349 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16? | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16? | Down | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
Culture 50% $-132
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-132 | loss |
Tech 20% $-164
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-154 | loss |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-156 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$961 | $5,341 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | +$741 | $5,658 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | $7,620 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $11,311 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 77.6¢ | 98¢ | +$238 | $2,832 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $1,640 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $510 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $231 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 48.4¢ | 91¢ | +$840 | $1,308 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,191 | $5,804 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $800 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$18 | $3,952 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 1¢ | $-221 | $501 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $88 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | +$210 | $760 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 50.4¢ | 92¢ | +$948 | $2,775 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $110 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $438 | 01/04/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 20.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7,081 | $2,562 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6,184 | $35,134 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3,787 | $36,657 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3,744 | $12,420 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3,044 | $30,506 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,583 | $16,633 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,573 | $9,593 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,260 | $3,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,164 | $12,211 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$613 | $2,758 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$456 | $4,918 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$420 | $580 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$387 | $2,480 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | No | 36.5¢ | 100¢ | +$385 | $336 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | $214 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 65.7¢ | 100¢ | +$267 | $3,346 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by December 31? | No | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $654 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $4,383 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by February 28, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $2,071 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $6,492 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | $3,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? | No | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $2,626 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | No | 54.9¢ | 0¢ | +$153 | $2,808 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | $710 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? | No | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$110 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $230 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $1,554 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $125 | 31/03/2026 |