Win rate
81.0%
1351 W / 316 L
Total PnL
$41,951
realized $-23,090 · unrealized $65,041
Portfolio
$65,041
volume $16,129,765
Predictions
1,579
18.3/day · avg $10,215
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$19,950
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 74¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | +$8 | win |
| Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 79¢ | 94¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 18¢ | +$4 | win |
| Canton FDV above $14B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will Plasma dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 84¢ | 66¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 86¢ | +$31 | win |
Crypto 90% +$19,839
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 82¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | 80k | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$907 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | 80k | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $60k | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin -6% daily candle change in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 72% +$9,125
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | — |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-687 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-227 | loss |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-19 | loss |
Elections 76% +$820
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 220 and 249 seats? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | loss |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$194 | win |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Politics 74% +$692
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$601 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$114 | win |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 24¢ | $-387 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$49 | win |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Yes | 51¢ | 52¢ | +$196 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-26 | loss |
Finance 50% +$476
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Yes | 29¢ | 36¢ | +$6 | win |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 65¢ | 23¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | Yes | 82¢ | 56¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,144 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-171 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7000 (HIGH) in January? | Yes | 5¢ | 100¢ | +$433 | win |
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on October 16? | Up | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by September 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Culture 80% +$165
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | Yes | 51¢ | 58¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$248 | win |
| Will Justin Bieber be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
Esports 100% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ludwig & MoistCr1TiKaL win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
Mentions 100% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 70% $-115
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 9? | Up | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 9? | Down | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Coinbase acquire Circle before September? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Coinbase acquire Circle before September? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Coinbase top 20 app December 13? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Weather 78% $-1,342
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$20 | win |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on September 24? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on September 22? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-1,445 | loss |
Tech 75% $-7,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 49¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 45¢ | 18¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by February 28? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| GPT ads by December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| GPT ads by December 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-352 | loss |
| Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-6,248 | loss |
| Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 16.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,352 | $1,813 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $4,732 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $4,413 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,034 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $106 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $245 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $91 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 84.9¢ | 0¢ | $-826 | $4,257 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 55.6¢ | 91¢ | +$128 | $798 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 92.5¢ | 0¢ | $-382 | $569 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 95.2¢ | 9¢ | $-354 | $391 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.3¢ | 98¢ | +$41 | $259 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | $458 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $726 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $31 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $23 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $980 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6,907 | $84,918 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.2¢ | 0¢ | $-5,421 | $59,468 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 48.4¢ | 9¢ | $-370 | $1,350 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 58.4¢ | 91¢ | +$349 | $2,744 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $79 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | $29,474 | 01/04/2026 |
| XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $5,730 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $7,774 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $708 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $731 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $736 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $372 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $254 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $246 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $238 | 01/04/2026 |
| Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? | Yes | 55.3¢ | 0¢ | $-531 | $553 | 01/04/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,163 | $14,563 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$657 | $93,825 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$494 | $7,653 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | +$402 | $1,255 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$393 | $2,369 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | Yes | 50.6¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $761 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | +$310 | $6,717 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 44.5¢ | 100¢ | +$250 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | $7,350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 45.4¢ | 50¢ | +$161 | $1,674 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $9,885 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | +$149 | $339 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $6,513 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | $2,521 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $8,071 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | +$104 | $1,254 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $2,265 | 31/03/2026 |