Rex416

Geopolitics 66% +$21,081 $244,360 vol · 142 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	75¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	10¢	9¢	+$10	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$137	win
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?	Yes	6¢	4¢	+$37	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	67¢	28¢	$-792	loss
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	85¢	94¢	+$1	win
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$2,996	win
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$63	win
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	+$591	win

Esports 64% +$7,292 $182,830 vol · 209 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1	Oh My God	60¢	100¢	+$200	win
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Looking For Laburo (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin America South Group Stage	KRÜ Blaze	91¢	100¢	+$44	win
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A	G2 Esports	90¢	100¢	+$102	win
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A	FURIA	90¢	100¢	+$250	win
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs	Aurora Young Blood	60¢	100¢	+$100	win
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs OG (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs	OG	70¢	100¢	+$76	win
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	FUT Esports	75¢	0¢	$-406	loss
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Astralis	73¢	100¢	$-884	loss
LoL: Witchcraft vs Baam Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D	Witchcraft	92¢	100¢	+$84	win
Game Handicap: IVO (-1.5) vs Yangon Galacticos (+1.5)	Yangon Galacticos	44¢	50¢	+$60	win

Mentions 24% +$4,843 $72,573 vol · 216 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$78	win
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?	No	94¢	100¢	+$61	win
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$66	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-11,250	loss
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-257	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-114	loss
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—

Politics 62% +$1,806 $81,805 vol · 137 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	No	1¢	0¢	$-64	loss
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$-2	loss
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	No	65¢	67¢	+$2	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$104	win
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social?	No	36¢	25¢	$-90	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	88¢	100¢	+$245	win

Elections 63% +$1,761 $50,166 vol · 49 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	38¢	45¢	+$14	win
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	60¢	70¢	$-15	loss
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	91¢	94¢	+$7	win
Will Doly Begum win the by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest in the House of Commons of Canada?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	96¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	5¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-320	loss
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	No	98¢	100¢	+$571	win

Culture 31% +$880 $18,709 vol · 33 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	60¢	0¢	$-300	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	No	67¢	0¢	$-332	loss
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	32¢	0¢	$-917	loss
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	No	18¢	0¢	$-88	loss
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$3,060	win
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	No	63¢	100¢	+$1,130	win
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$975	win
Will Cirkut win 3 Grammys?	No	87¢	100¢	+$109	win
Will Cirkut win 2 Grammys?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$39	win

Weather 69% +$264 $3,942 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-615	loss
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$42	win
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes	Miami Hurricanes	45¢	100¢	+$549	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 16?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 16?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (W)	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Australian Open Women's: Storm Hunter vs Ekaterine Gorgodze	Hunter	81¢	100¢	+$193	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?	No	86¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 4?	Yes	89¢	0¢	$-116	loss

Economy 43% $-159 $521 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bryan Johnson say "Fast Food" while tripping balls?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls?	No	30¢	0¢	$-150	loss
SMU Mustangs vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs	SMU Mustangs	35¢	100¢	+$81	win

Tech 65% $-576 $17,903 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	35¢	0¢	$-272	loss
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$50	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	46¢	0¢	$-294	loss
Will FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs. FK Polissia end in a draw?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win on 2026-03-19?	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?	No	18¢	100¢	+$205	win
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$4	win
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17?	Down	100¢	100¢	+$5	win

Sports 55% $-4,235 $571,584 vol · 808 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next?	Yes	76¢	20¢	$-509	loss
Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next?	No	99¢	90¢	$-39	loss
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	49¢	78¢	+$274	win
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	88¢	94¢	$-6	loss
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	81¢	90¢	$-71	loss
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$95	win
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	93¢	98¢	$-1	loss
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva	Iga Swiatek	73¢	0¢	$-5,111	loss

Finance 60% $-4,593 $10,498 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	36¢	24¢	+$123	win
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	No	75¢	0¢	$-2,379	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-2,432	loss
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$92	win

Crypto 50% $-7,203 $320,924 vol · 612 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	80k	83¢	100¢	+$0	—
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	40¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn	Cameron Norrie	86¢	100¢	+$410	win
Wrestlefest: Seth Rollins vs. Gunther	Gunther	74¢	100¢	+$23	win
No token launch by March 31	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$14	win
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	No	73¢	0¢	$-277	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	48¢	100¢	+$130	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	40¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	89¢	100¢	+$69	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	54¢	100¢	+$25	win

Other 60% $-18,827 $813,818 vol · 972 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	85¢	90¢	+$18	win
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	27¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	51¢	100¢	+$5,691	win
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	0¢	0¢	+$336	win
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	45¢	0¢	+$92	win
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	31¢	0¢	$-140	loss
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	41¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$123	win
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	90¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	56¢	58¢	+$23	win