GoodOldBogan

Politics 74% +$775 $50,757 vol · 218 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	95¢	95¢	$-1	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	80¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	64¢	78¢	+$10	win
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	93¢	95¢	+$7	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	89¢	92¢	$-59	loss
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	57¢	92¢	+$24	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	87¢	96¢	+$3	win
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?	No	90¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	85¢	100¢	+$14	win

Weather 68% +$308 $85,380 vol · 814 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18?	Yes	94¢	90¢	$-2	loss
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 17?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 9?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 8?	No	86¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 7?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 6?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 6?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 5?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win

Economy 100% +$64 $948 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$9	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$22	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$20	win
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	12¢	0¢	+$1	win
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$7	win
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$4	win

Crypto 80% +$38 $985 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?	No	87¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?	No	93¢	100¢	+$30	win

Tech 78% +$26 $1,181 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI browser in 2025?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	61¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?	No	90¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?	No	88¢	100¢	+$3	win

Culture 78% +$17 $1,959 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	52¢	0¢	$-211	loss
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$139	win
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-254	loss
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?	No	88¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Taylor Swift release a new original album by August 31?	No	90¢	100¢	+$23	win

Sports 100% +$14 $145 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$11	win
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win

Esports 50% +$8 $72 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)	Top Esports	71¢	100¢	+$8	win
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)	Gen.G	81¢	100¢	$-0	loss

Finance 83% $-7 $325 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	No	26¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will anyone say "Squid Game" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 74% $-729 $23,954 vol · 49 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	96¢	98¢	+$2	win
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	20¢	17¢	$-15	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	79¢	84¢	+$10	win
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?	No	67¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	85¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	94¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	Yes	81¢	94¢	+$3	win
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	75¢	80¢	+$11	win
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	91¢	96¢	+$6	win
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	80¢	88¢	+$21	win

Other 69% $-1,212 $69,037 vol · 201 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$40	win
Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$21	win
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	82¢	93¢	+$18	win
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	76¢	78¢	+$9	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$0	win
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	88¢	92¢	+$27	win
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	54¢	80¢	+$4	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	68¢	84¢	+$12	win

Geopolitics 78% $-2,196 $114,381 vol · 262 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	No	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	51¢	86¢	+$2	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	79¢	84¢	+$52	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	70¢	76¢	+$13	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	62¢	70¢	+$8	win
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$0	win
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	73¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	90¢	94¢	+$54	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	81¢	90¢	+$7	win