Win rate
81.7%
49 W / 11 L
Total PnL
$719
realized $-970 · unrealized $1,688
Portfolio
$1,688
volume $12,186
Predictions
131
5.1/day · avg $93
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 89% +$782
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 69¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 72¢ | +$32 | win |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 71¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 17¢ | 56¢ | +$56 | win |
Other 80% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 45¢ | 62¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 57¢ | 72¢ | +$11 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 0% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 48¢ | 10¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
Politics 78% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 86¢ | +$4 | win |
Mentions 81% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.4¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $33 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $136 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $65 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.4¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 87¢ | +$27 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $53 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $62 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 77.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 72.5¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $57 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 70.5¢ | 87¢ | +$330 | $797 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $26 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 80.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $29 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $76 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 36.8¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 68.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 86¢ | +$4 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $45 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $68 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 50.9¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $71 | 27/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 24.8¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $29 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 94.4¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $80 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 80¢ | +$17 | $38 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 76.2¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | $44 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $48 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 32¢ | +$19 | $54 | 22/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 30¢ | +$7 | $54 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 92.9¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | $190 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 56¢ | +$56 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97.5¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $181 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 91.1¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 79.3¢ | 93¢ | +$6 | $38 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UK strike Iran by April 30? | No | 96.7¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $38 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 44.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $42 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94.0¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $39 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $102 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 64¢ | +$21 | $78 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 56.9¢ | 72¢ | +$11 | $39 | 31/05/2026 |