Win rate
38.0%
164 W / 268 L
Total PnL
$-17,655
realized $-19,336 · unrealized $1,681
Portfolio
$1,681
volume $770,727
Predictions
507
10.4/day · avg $1,520
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Mentions 33% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 160-189 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | loss |
Elections 75% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 18¢ | 1¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 35% and 40%? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Geopolitics 41% $-25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 7¢ | $-2 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran strike eight countries in March? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 25% $-87
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 48¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Other 35% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 57¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 57¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 42¢ | +$2 | win |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | No | 79¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 77¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Weather 27% $-150
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27? | No | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? | Yes | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 24? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 22? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 22? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-66 | loss |
Politics 36% $-309
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? | Yes | 67¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? | Yes | 63¢ | 45¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | Yes | 57¢ | 42¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | No | 50¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 34¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Trump University" in April? | Yes | 31¢ | 8¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 8¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
Sports 0% $-571
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-240 | loss |
| Will New Caledonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will New Caledonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | Hawks | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
Finance 11% $-1,296
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-53 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | Down | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 18? | Down | 8¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? | No | 92¢ | 95¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 96¢ | 88¢ | $-207 | loss |
| Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | +$157 | win |
Tech 21% $-2,598
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-369 | loss |
| Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-1,008 | loss |
Crypto 43% $-14,038
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-868 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-636 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-442 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $130 in February? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-3,472 | loss |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in February? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-4,130 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET | Down | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET | Up | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? | Up | 1.7¢ | 1¢ | +$211 | $35 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 59.7¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $36 | 17/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? | Down | 98.0¢ | 99¢ | $-219 | $455 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,175 | 17/04/2026 |
| Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $95 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $128 | 16/04/2026 |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | $49 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | $-47 | $97 | 16/04/2026 |
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-211 | $423 | 16/04/2026 |
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | $-240 | $500 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 35% and 40%? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | $924 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | $302 | 15/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-53 | $106 | 15/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | $-92 | $192 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | $-94 | $413 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will New Caledonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $250 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will New Caledonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 61.1¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $408 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 70.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $21 | 10/04/2026 |
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 10? | Down | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-58 | $119 | 10/04/2026 |
| Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 49.1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $45 | 09/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 09/04/2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $24 | 09/04/2026 |
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $28 | 09/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $21 | 09/04/2026 |
| Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $45 | 08/04/2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $48 | 08/04/2026 |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | $196 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $490 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 12 be between 80 and 85? | No | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $22 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 61.1¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 35.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump or Melania say "Ahead of schedule" at Chicago Opening Night? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during executive order signing today? | Yes | 33.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 4+ times during executive order signing today? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kennedy" during executive order signing today? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "China" during executive order signing today? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $114 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike seven countries in March? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing today? | No | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump or Melania say "Billy" or "Roxie" at Chicago Opening Night? | No | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike eight countries in March? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $334 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 46.9¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? | No | 32.9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |