Mtc-better

Politics 60% $-60 $816 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	52¢	38¢	$-82	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	57¢	57¢	+$1	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?	No	57¢	58¢	+$7	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	54¢	80¢	+$17	win

Elections 17% $-312 $433 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-77	loss
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	60¢	0¢	$-185	loss
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	8¢	10¢	+$4	win
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$-5	loss

Other 21% $-1,058 $3,070 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	32¢	24¢	$-6	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	59¢	40¢	$-63	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	46¢	28¢	$-11	loss
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	74¢	81¢	$-24	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	62¢	72¢	$-0	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	43¢	28¢	$-46	loss
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	58¢	1¢	$-95	loss
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-114	loss
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	No	32¢	0¢	$-622	loss
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	22¢	20¢	+$1	win

Geopolitics 60% $-4,670 $12,650 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	54¢	60¢	$-8	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	15¢	6¢	$-4	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	12¢	8¢	$-8	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	66¢	0¢	$-348	loss
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$-22	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	21¢	28¢	+$0	—
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	11¢	20¢	$-1	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	34¢	0¢	$-249	loss
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	36¢	37¢	+$119	win
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	18¢	51¢	+$38	win