Win rate
64.0%
260 W / 146 L
Total PnL
$-6,518
realized $-20,870 · unrealized $14,352
Portfolio
$14,352
volume $4,807,403
Predictions
463
4.8/day · avg $10,383
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 62% +$19,585
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 72¢ | +$5,968 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$2,053 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 51¢ | 70¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | $-1,826 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 58¢ | +$478 | win |
Finance 79% +$991
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-77 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? | Down | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | Up | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16? | Down | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-221 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
Tech 75% +$54
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 27? | Down | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Other 59% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 60¢ | 33¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 52¢ | 67¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 90¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 70¢ | 98¢ | +$1,926 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$1,536 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 22¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-140 | loss |
Culture 33% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026) | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 40% $-242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-231 | loss |
Sports 75% $-633
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T20 World Cup: England vs India | India | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Janice Tjen vs Amanda Anisimova | Anisimova | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) | South Africa | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) | Pakistan | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) | UAE | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Antonia Ruzic | Rybakina | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-1,590 | loss |
| T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) | New Zealand | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | win |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Kimberly Birrell | Rybakina | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) | Canada | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula | Pegula | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 64% $-1,673
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$465 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | win |
| Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$356 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas? | Yes | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | loss |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1,044 | win |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$616 | win |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-1,008 | loss |
| Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-3,961 | loss |
Politics 59% $-5,894
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-6,045 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 43¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 2¢ | +$92 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$1,644 | win |
Crypto 66% $-6,361
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | 100k | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 17-23? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-122 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-292 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Ethereum all time high before 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12AM ET | Down | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 75% $-14,257
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-16,684 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$416 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$352 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$560 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$966 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 2¢ | +$92 | $499 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,103 | $29,113 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 92.1¢ | 19¢ | +$-0 | $737 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $704 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | $1,020 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | $-75 | $3,942 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $-668 | $2,324 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $-672 | $1,498 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | $-8,978 | $20,226 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $345 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 69.7¢ | 98¢ | +$1,926 | $4,738 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 72.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,536 | $7,817 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$465 | $2,635 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | $5,248 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 20.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,123 | $2,221 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 67.8¢ | 0¢ | +$122 | $1,152 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $618 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2,240 | $9,075 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $112 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,644 | $1,523 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 86.3¢ | 81¢ | +$305 | $6,601 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$231 | $5,446 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 94.7¢ | 0¢ | +$108 | $15,076 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 49.8¢ | 19¢ | $-44 | $996 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,628 | $20,452 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,559 | $6,213 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$631 | $6,110 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$428 | $4,484 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$331 | $24,312 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | $4,771 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $2,286 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $909 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,275 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,640 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,820 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $380 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $1,032 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 22¢ | $-0 | $159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $2,946 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $1,882 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $2,306 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $253 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $925 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $380 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | $3,144 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | $3,427 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | $-77 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-140 | $936 | 31/03/2026 |