Win rate
70.5%
79 W / 33 L
Total PnL
$-1,408
realized $-3,794 · unrealized $2,386
Portfolio
$2,386
volume $3,084,134
Predictions
194
6.5/day · avg $15,898
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 77% +$624
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 70¢ | +$4 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | +$20 | win |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 1¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | No | 23¢ | 32¢ | +$1 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 57¢ | 57¢ | +$0 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 29¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 39¢ | 42¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? | Yes | 81¢ | 89¢ | +$274 | win |
| Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? | No | 15¢ | 11¢ | +$43 | win |
Elections 100% +$144
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 49¢ | 28¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 67% +$143
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rihanna release an album in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | No | 39¢ | 36¢ | +$72 | win |
Tech 33% +$51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | Yes | 63¢ | 70¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 50¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 50¢ | $-4 | loss |
Politics 25% $-86
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 50¢ | 63¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
Economy 60% $-147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 16¢ | 20¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-164 | loss |
Geopolitics 65% $-2,874
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 53¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$50 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 61¢ | 32¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 18¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Yes | 51¢ | 51¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$51 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$45 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $131 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | $1,021 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $315 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | $1,040 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,008 | $1,040 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | $211 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | Yes | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $462 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $158 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | No | 40.2¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? | No | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | $241 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-356 | $372 | 31/03/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | No | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-367 | $603 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $163 | 20/03/2026 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $98 | 18/03/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $45 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $45 | 07/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $31 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? | No | 14.3¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | $148 | 30/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $474 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $110 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $223 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | No | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,532 | $1,657 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $682 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 1.1¢ | 1¢ | $-164 | $910 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $211 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? | No | 19.8¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | $47 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | No | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | +$107 | $278 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 76¢ | +$81 | $798 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 65¢ | +$14 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 77.9¢ | 99¢ | +$7 | $56 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? | No | 88.0¢ | 93¢ | +$6 | $88 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $94 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 35¢ | +$5 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 24¢ | +$4 | $20 | 30/04/2026 |