KennyM

Elections 59% +$6,814 $231,346 vol · 75 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	36¢	52¢	$-19	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	77¢	86¢	+$1	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	40¢	40¢	$-5	loss
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	59¢	0¢	+$17	win
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	73¢	0¢	$-1,337	loss
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$522	win
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	No	75¢	100¢	+$385	win
French election called by December 31?	No	61¢	100¢	+$9	win
Ukraine election called in 2025?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-5	loss

Tech 75% +$558 $5,146 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-14	loss
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	87¢	0¢	$-111	loss
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$331	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$186	win
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$16	win

Crypto 80% +$137 $3,483 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	38¢	40¢	+$15	win
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Over	81¢	100¢	+$12	win
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	85¢	100¢	+$153	win
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in November?	No	91¢	100¢	+$28	win

Mentions 100% +$27 $138 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?	No	84¢	100¢	+$7	win

Economy 50% $-381 $6,491 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	49¢	38¢	$-303	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$15	win
US recession in 2025?	No	55¢	100¢	+$24	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	40¢	0¢	+$2	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$119	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	73¢	100¢	$-55	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$56	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July?	No	72¢	0¢	$-201	loss

Other 60% $-452 $269,376 vol · 1367 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?	Yes	57¢	73¢	+$64	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	58¢	44¢	+$1	win
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	45¢	52¢	$-7	loss
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	65¢	62¢	$-55	loss
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-384	loss
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	35¢	0¢	$-174	loss
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?	Yes	50¢	28¢	$-389	loss
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?	Yes	32¢	26¢	$-76	loss
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	Yes	12¢	2¢	$-7	loss
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	73¢	74¢	+$4	win

Sports 53% $-1,200 $12,286 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	16¢	$-85	loss
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	69¢	70¢	+$6	win
Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5	Under	90¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?	Yes	49¢	0¢	+$175	win
Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-202	loss
Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer window?	No	68¢	100¢	$-60	loss
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	84¢	100¢	$-1,037	loss
Will Europe win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	70¢	72¢	$-3	loss

Weather 22% $-1,699 $2,746 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?	No	65¢	0¢	$-181	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	No	84¢	100¢	+$33	win
Another 5.0 or above earthquake in Greece by September 30?	No	80¢	100¢	+$12	win
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	28¢	0¢	$-191	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	35¢	0¢	$-404	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?	No	63¢	0¢	$-400	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above in April?	No	60¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?	Yes	57¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?	No	71¢	0¢	$-557	loss

Geopolitics 54% $-3,164 $251,934 vol · 284 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Ceasefire	69¢	100¢	+$172	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	59¢	30¢	+$4	win
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	Yes	43¢	15¢	$-220	loss
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	60¢	18¢	$-18	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	2¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	83¢	84¢	$-75	loss
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	61¢	26¢	$-79	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	74¢	100¢	$-173	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	50¢	30¢	$-370	loss

Politics 48% $-13,314 $382,071 vol · 421 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	63¢	64¢	+$49	win
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?	Trump Announce Fed	77¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	77¢	0¢	$-123	loss
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	42¢	23¢	$-236	loss
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	40¢	16¢	$-58	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	73¢	100¢	$-73	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	72¢	100¢	$-89	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	21¢	6¢	+$0	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	75¢	84¢	$-197	loss
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	No	51¢	0¢	+$15	win