Win rate
86.8%
204 W / 31 L
Total PnL
$5,094
realized $-2,924 · unrealized $8,018
Portfolio
$8,018
volume $265,379
Predictions
314
6.6/day · avg $845
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 91% +$2,997
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Blackpink release a song in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? | No | 60¢ | 70¢ | +$7 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 40¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? | Yes | 37¢ | 30¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 38¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 82¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Culture 88% +$1,601
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West release an album in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will BTS release a new song in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Nettspend release an album by June 30? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? | Yes | 74¢ | 46¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will North West release an album by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will North West release an album by December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$86 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 90% +$364
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 86¢ | +$6 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kevin Stitt replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | loss |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 18? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 72% +$156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | $-10 | loss |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Elections 85% +$143
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? | No | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the second round? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 100% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$62 | win |
Crypto 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 42¢ | +$5 | win |
Mentions 50% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,756 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $190 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $44 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $73 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 80k and 100k? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $103 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $82 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 18? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $176 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 18? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 18? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 13/04/2026 |
| The Masters 2026: Hole in One? | No | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $70 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $56 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $1,616 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $953 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $1,042 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 600k and 700k? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $418 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be at least 900k? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,902 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 700k and 800k? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $52 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 500k and 600k? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $457 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $159 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 400k and 500k? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $340 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $30 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k? | Yes | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $211 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $1,093 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 275k and 300k? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $143 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 250k and 275k? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $421 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $77 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? | Yes | 39.7¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $530 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $4,808 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 23.9¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | $133 | 31/03/2026 |
| Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $161 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31? | Yes | 72.6¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? | No | 63.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Rami leave Babymonster? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $146 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $698 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | No | 55.1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 800k? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $561 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 900k and 950k? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $446 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 800k and 850k? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $68 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 59 million views on day 2? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 23/03/2026 |
| Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? | No | 77.0¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$331 | $4,177 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be at least 6m? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $181 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 4m and 4.5m? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $74 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$524 | $3,568 | 15/03/2026 |