Win rate
73.9%
227 W / 80 L
Total PnL
$-64,533
realized $-68,905 · unrealized $4,372
Portfolio
$4,372
volume $8,114,790
Predictions
292
2.9/day · avg $27,790
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Culture 69% +$56,663
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m? | Yes | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-5,848 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-3,094 | loss |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-9,317 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-3,804 | loss |
| Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$471 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-311 | loss |
Politics 72% +$16,306
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10,837 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$900 | win |
| Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 69¢ | 75¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 12¢ | 100¢ | +$3,460 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
Tech 80% +$10,684
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$9,535 | win |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$2,001 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1,716 | loss |
Finance 100% +$7,862
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6,902 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$960 | win |
Geopolitics 93% +$7,234
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$635 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$586 | win |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4,923 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Israel strikes Syria by Friday? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$1,492 | win |
Elections 38% +$4,361
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-180 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-4,814 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5,280 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4,400 | win |
Weather 56% +$223
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in October 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in October 2025 (LS)? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-830 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in October 2025 (LS)? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3,657 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 0% +$-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
Other 83% $-167,645
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$341 | win |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 93¢ | +$327 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1,428 | win |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1,426 | win |
| Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-3,309 | loss |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1,952 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 75¢ | +$180 | $2,216 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | No | 81.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5,848 | $5,848 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3,094 | $3,094 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $664 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $75 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $7,556 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $49,950 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 100¢ | +$30,265 | $11,333 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,667 | $11,607 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36,800 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35,895 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $879 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-184 | $184 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3,804 | $11,145 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4,088 | $6,701 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6,881 | $18,781 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9,317 | $7,372 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 12.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,460 | $480 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,426 | $19,640 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,092 | $7,148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$635 | $14,358 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$586 | $31,608 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$489 | $2,136 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$471 | $3,066 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$438 | $4,111 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | $2,244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $1,813 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $1,702 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | $27,091 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | $900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | $1,315 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | $1,093 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $1,051 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 84.6¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | $655 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $662 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $1,184 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $1,147 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $605 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $1,265 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $628 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $492 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $420 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $448 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $317 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $296 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $391 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $321 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $189 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $420 | 31/03/2026 |