xenonliu

Economy 67% +$323 $33,233 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	63¢	99¢	+$290	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	95¢	99¢	$-0	loss
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-70	loss
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 5.0%?	No	99¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	No	60¢	70¢	+$4	win
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	62¢	66¢	$-16	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$22	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$13	win

Sports 100% +$234 $6,019 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$139	win
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$90	win
Will China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$5	win

Elections 71% +$78 $378,459 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	27¢	34¢	+$4	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	78¢	66¢	$-55	loss
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$115	win

Crypto 100% +$1 $610 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$0	—

Weather 50% $-17 $215 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 13?	No	84¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 12?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win

Other 69% $-85 $212,228 vol · 46 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	94¢	95¢	+$1	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	+$0	win
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	50¢	7¢	+$0	—
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	50¢	93¢	$-33	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	94¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	96¢	94¢	$-20	loss
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	98¢	98¢	+$0	win
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$57	win
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	80¢	100¢	+$9	win

Tech 50% $-118 $259 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-129	loss
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$11	win

Esports 33% $-373 $1,400 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Gen.G	95¢	0¢	$-221	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A	BNK FEARX	83¢	0¢	$-200	loss
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A	Bilibili Gaming	78¢	100¢	+$48	win

Politics 71% $-412 $43,130 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-296	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	99¢	99¢	+$-0	—
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	32¢	1¢	$-276	loss
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	+$5	win
Trump out as President by March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump say "Third term" in March?	No	95¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump say "N-Word" in February?	No	98¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$8	win

Geopolitics 76% $-598 $205,370 vol · 36 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	50¢	70¢	+$0	—
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	50¢	30¢	+$0	—
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	90¢	91¢	+$65	win
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	+$4	win
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	74¢	94¢	+$34	win
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	97¢	97¢	+$92	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	$-93	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	93¢	99¢	+$56	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	73¢	0¢	$-82	loss

Finance 88% $-7,361 $266,030 vol · 45 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15?	Up	100¢	100¢	+$20	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 14?	Up	100¢	100¢	+$14	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13?	Down	100¢	100¢	+$20	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?	Up	100¢	100¢	+$36	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7?	Down	100¢	100¢	+$17	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24?	Down	100¢	100¢	+$5	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?	Up	100¢	100¢	+$6	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?	Down	86¢	0¢	$-168	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19?	Down	100¢	100¢	+$8	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 18?	Down	99¢	100¢	+$24	win