Win rate
64.2%
124 W / 69 L
Total PnL
$1,560
realized $583 · unrealized $977
Portfolio
$977
volume $192,506
Predictions
323
9.1/day · avg $596
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 67% +$1,013
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 60¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Politics 69% +$385
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 20¢ | 14¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
Other 57% +$169
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: April | Nothing | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: April | Something | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 42¢ | $-2 | loss |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | No | 56¢ | 58¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 63¢ | 22¢ | $-16 | loss |
Sports 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WNBA and WNBPA sign a new CBA by Mar. 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Elections 60% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | Yes | 66¢ | 60¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Weather 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Culture 33% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $31 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $61 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $242 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 14, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $113 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $592 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $73 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $3,069 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $858 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 56.3¢ | 16¢ | +$7 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $37 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-300 | $2,347 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $292 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 36.1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 33.7¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $226 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026? | Yes | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $155 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $528 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $1,699 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness? | Yes | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $69 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 55.8¢ | 17¢ | $-20 | $154 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 47.6¢ | 83¢ | $-25 | $289 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $26 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 64.6¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $61 | 06/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $50 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $73 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $146 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 1? | No | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | $197 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $47 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $22 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation? | No | 24.5¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | No | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$142 | $389 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $1,038 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $1,264 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 41.3¢ | 0¢ | +$109 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $3,885 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 75.3¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $224 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026? | No | 17.8¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? | No | 69.1¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $133 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 66.2¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $318 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |