Win rate
62.1%
54 W / 33 L
Total PnL
$214
realized $-291,551 · unrealized $291,765
Portfolio
$291,765
volume $1,081,208
Predictions
102
3.1/day · avg $10,600
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 20/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 20/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 86% +$388
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 9¢ | +$2,278 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 91¢ | $-2,221 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | win |
Economy 100% +$105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$105 | win |
Politics 60% +$103
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$18 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 67% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$33 | win |
Crypto 63% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dreamcash launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-204 | loss |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 April 6-12? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Solana reach $120 March 30-April 5? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 30-April 5? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 25% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 96¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Other 60% $-231
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 78¢ | $-949 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 95¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | Yes | 50¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$207 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP dip to $1.10 April 6-12? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $42 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 April 6-12? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $145 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $136 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | $-15 | $9,880 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $110 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $179 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $120 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $102 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 30-April 5? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $61 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $23,883 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $2,839 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $4,960 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $10,720 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $997 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $998 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $996 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$296 | $66,881 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $19,673 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $30,867 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | $30,855 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $23,968 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $23,127 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $10,607 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $15,916 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $15,664 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $7,301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $10,726 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $4,296 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,623 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $860 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $2,006 | 31/03/2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $998 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $432 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $402 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $246 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $996 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $956 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $904 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $989 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $814 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $629 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | No | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $221 | 31/03/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $224 | 07/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 92¢ | $-7 | $552 | 07/01/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$105 | $10,322 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | No | 95.4¢ | 98¢ | +$126 | $104,951 | 30/04/2026 |